Angela Rayner’s decision to allow a number of councils to delay their elections this May will deprive of an overall victory, new research has revealed. Analysis suggests that with the current set of local elections, Reform is on course to win overall control of eight councils, behind the ’ 10.
However had elections gone ahead in all the local authority areas originally meant to have a vote, Reform would have taken 12 councils, ahead of the ’ 11, and the LibDems’ eight. The polling analysis done for the Telegraph used the highly accurate MRP-style polling to make seat-by-seat forecasts. It was based on questioning 5,400 on how they plan on voting, and then tailoring for demographics.
:
Nigel Farage is set for big wins in May (Image: Getty)
It predicts Reform will secure key victories, mostly against the , in areas like Derbyshire, Kent and County Durham.
However will also deal a blow to Ed Miliband, with the poll suggesting Reform will win Doncaster council.
Reform would also be expected to win control of Thurrock, Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex had the Government not allowed these authorities to delay their elections.
Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our local election poll shows that the are likely to make significant losses compared with their strong performance back in 2021.
“Reform UK look like the main gainers, as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power base in local government.
“But the large-scale delays to elections, affecting over five and a half million voters, will soften the scale of Conservative losses and reduce Reform’s gains.”
Don’t miss…
Kemi Badenoch will suffer a huge number of losses in May (Image: Getty)
Local elections are also being delayed in East Sussex, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Surry and West Sussex, due to local government reorganisations.
The polls suggests the will just pip Reform’s overall vote share in May, by 26% to 25%.
However in the council areas experiencing a delay to their elections, Reform is ahead of the by 25% to 23%.
The LibDems will also be harmed by the delays, with stronger support in the council areas no longer having a vote this May.
In those areas Ed Davey’s party is polling at 20%, compared to 16% where elections will be taking place.
The MRP survey suggests the will lose a total of nine councils to both Reform and the LibDems, in a blow to Kemi Badenoch.
condemned the Government earlier this year for allowing councils to scrap their elections, comparing to a dictator.
Mr Farage blasted: “The two old parties’ century-long stranglehold on British politics is breaking and they are terrified.”
“Their day of reckoning is fast approaching.”