Vladimir Putin addresses the Russian interior ministry board (Image: Getty)
can “collapse ” and inflict “humiliation” on the UK by making one strategic move, a leading member of the Defence Select Committee has warned. Mike Martin MP, who is also on the National Security Strategy Joint Committee, said American “ambivalence” to European security has opened the door for to “test Article 5” – a NATO clause that says an attack on one member is an attack on all members.
The MP for Tunbridge Wells wrote on X: “It is clearly accepted by the European powers (but not the UK, yet) that America is not interested in European security any more, and probably wouldn’t respond to a testing of Article 5”, He added that “if Article 5 doesn’t work any more, because the Americans don’t support it, and the Europeans can’t fight without America, then would be sensible to try and test that premise.” Around 900 British and 300 French troops are stationed in Tapa, Estonia, under Estonian command, approximately 70 miles from the Russian border.
Former British Army officer Mike Martin MP has warned Russia could ‘collapse’ NATO (Image: X.com)
Mr Martin, who is also a visiting lecturer in War Studies at King’s College London, argues that if was to invade the small town of Narva on the Estonian side of the border, even by using unmarked soldiers, the NATO alliance could collapse.
He wrote: “Let’s say the Russians want to test article 5. Easiest thing to do is to have a ‘nibble’ at Narva. Maybe some little green men, maybe some border incursions, maybe something cloaked in the narrative of protecting Russian speakers.
“At some point, the Estonians decide that they’ve had enough and they decide to move their forces forward from Tapa toward Narva to reinforce their border.”
The Lib Dem argues that British troops, given they are part of Estonian units, would be expected to go and defend the town alongside local forces. However, commanders would need to seek permission from the UK Government, which in turn would need assurances from Washington that the US would provide support to British troops.
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Let’s say the Russians want to test article 5.Easiest thing to do is to have a ‘nibble’ at Narva. Maybe some little green men, maybe some border incursions, maybe something cloaked in the narrative of protecting Russian speakers.
— Mike Martin MP ?????? (@ThreshedThought)
If , in-keeping with his desire for US isolationism, decides he does not want to commit US military power to Estonia, then Britain would fall back too, Mr Martin insists.
He added: “Without US support, the UK is not putting its battle group in direct confrontation with Russian forces. London denies permission for UK forces to move forward to Narva with the Estonians. That’s it. That’s the end of Article 5, and with it NATO. Not to mention that this scenario would be utterly, utterly humiliating for the UK. I mean a grand, generational humiliation.
“I’m not sure how much the UK government has realised quite how much risk it is taking in Estonia now that the US has made clear its ambivalence to NATO, and to Article 5.
“These are very worrying times in Europe – we need to get our act together fast.”
Kristen Michal (second right) at a summit to mark the third anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine (Image: Getty)
Mr Martin’s concerns are shared within Estonia’s corridors of power. Reacting to the Trump administration’s explicit admissions that it is stepping back from its role as the guarantor of European security, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said the continent must step up to defend itself.
He said: “These kind of signals probably are messages from Trump that you should take your defense very seriously — so for me it’s quite understandable.
“If you are probably the wealthiest and most free region in the world, you should protect it and invest in your own defense.”
He added that he would “probably welcome and support” French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent initiative to bring European nations under the French nuclear umbrella.