A warming often leads to snowy weather, the Met Office website states (Image: Getty)
The Met Office has warned that Britain could be in for a chilly surprise this month as a phenomenon commonly associated with snow looms on the horizon. Meteorologists suggest a sudden stratospheric warming event might occur within the next two weeks, potentially dashing any hopes of continued warm weather sending off winter chills.
This scenario could lead to the rapid weakening of the polar vortex, usually only mentioned during particularly severe weather spells. The has now made a statement regarding the chances of this event impacting the UK.
The polar vortex is essentially a mass of frigid air surrounding the poles of Earth. When it weakens, this can lead to the jet stream becoming less stable and allow frosty Arctic blasts to head southwards.
These conditions are known to provoke heavy snowfall, widespread blizzards, and a serious drop in temperatures, prompting speculation about an impending occurrence. According to ‘Weather Tracker’ by The Guardian: “The next stratospheric event looks stronger than the previous one, and will probably weaken the jet stream pattern. This may allow a release of cold air from the polar regions to move southwards into North America or Eurasia, in turn increasing the risk of significant snow for some regions.”
Adding to the evening’s updates, the commented: “The stratosphere polar vortex is now weakening rapidly,” reports .
The spokesman warned: “Over the last few days, the forecasts have become very confident and we are almost certain there will be a sudden stratospheric warming in mid-March. This is when the mid stratospheric wind is predicted to reverse from westerly to easterly.”
A similar event in mid-February resulted in prolonged periods of extreme cold and heavy snowfall, particularly in eastern and northern Scotland. The effects were even more severe in the USA and Canada, causing widespread disruption due to freezing conditions, according to the Scottish Daily Express.
The impending cold snap could potentially be even more powerful, affecting any location within the northern hemisphere. Severe Weather Europe’s website issued a warning: “This upcoming event in the stratosphere looks stronger than the first one and is forecast to be the final collapse of the polar vortex for this season.”
Bloomberg reported: “Europe faces a cold snap this month as forecasters brace for an unusual weather event originating in the Arctic, threatening to bolster heating demand just as spring gets under way.”
The report, citing data from Weather Services International, added: “A similar weather pattern fueled the ‘Beast from the East’ that plunged the UK and Ireland into a prolonged and deadly cold spell in 2018, though March’s conditions aren’t forecast to be near as severe. Still, a cold start to spring could increase gas demand and put pressure on inventories that remain lower than usual for the time of year.”
Meteorologist Andrew Pedrini from Atmospheric G2 has recently highlighted the ongoing discussions around the stratosphere as winter draws to a close, stating: “The stratosphere continues to be a big topic of conversation as the winter ends.”
What does the have to say about the potential collapse of the polar vortex?
reported new comments from the at approximately 5.30pm on Tuesday, March 5, with a spokesperson revealing that “about 70 per cent of sudden stratospheric warming events lead to cold conditions with easterly winds across northern Europe and the UK.”
Brits will not be keen on a return to colder weather (Image: Getty)
So, what exactly is sudden stratospheric warming?
The provides an explanation for those curious about this phenomenon. They explain that recent extreme cold and snow events have been linked to the surface effects of sudden stratospheric warmings, citing examples from 2009-10, 2013, and the infamous ‘beast from the east’ in 2018.
You might wonder why it’s referred to as a ‘warming’ if it results in colder conditions. The term refers to a rapid increase in temperature (up to about 50 °C in just a couple of days) occurring between 10 km and 50 km above the earth’s surface.
This is too high for us to feel the ‘warming’ directly, but we can often see its effects on the jet stream a few weeks later, which in turn impacts our weather lower down in the troposphere. However, it’s important to note that sudden stratospheric warming doesn’t occur every year, and even when it does, it doesn’t always affect our weather.