European leader tipped to ‘do a Starmer’ as defence spending low despite Russian threat

’s decision to increase ​the UK’s defence spending will act as a “beacon” for other European nations to follow, EU diplomats predicted last night.

And top of that list is which, despite PM Giorgia Meloni​’s ardent support of and condemnation of , still only spends 1.6 % of its GDP on defence. This makes it one of only eight members not meeting the minimum 2% threshold.

“What Starmer did this week will give Europeans the push they needed,” said one diplomat in Brussels last night.

President ’s decision to shift the US’ military might away from Europe and focus on China has galvanised NATO members, of which 30 out of 32 are European. This will be the subject of a specially-convened meeting of European leaders on Sunday as they gather at the ​”spy-proof​” Lancaster House in West London where, in 1950, foreign ministers thrashed out the framework of what was to become NATO.

One major hurdle is already being dealt with – debt cap rules.

These require members to maintain budget deficits below 3% of GDP and keep gross government debt below 60% of GDP.

Italy has repeatedly urged the EU to use common debt to pay for higher defence spending – traditionally anathema to more fiscally conservative northern European members such as Germany and the Netherlands.

Yesterday, Meloni welcomed a proposal from European Commission ​President Ursula von der Leyen to exclude defence spending from the debt cap. The move is expected to be implemented within the next few months, sources say.

But ​the Italian PM has another problem. Despite its strong defence industry, a lingering post-war reticence over all things military has made it a challenge for successive Italian governments to increase defence spending.

“Meloni is sincere about her views on . She has always been pro-, even before she became PM,” said the Italian diplomat. “She’s very British from that point of view – she supports the underdog.”

He added: ”She is aware that Italy is underspending on defence, and the reasons are domestic. Italy lost World War 2 and, with it, its monarchy and its confidence. We have a complex relationship with all things military, and talking about increasing defence spending is a very tricky political topic, even for a right-wing party.”

Starmer’s decision to increase defence spending may well tip that balance​, however.

“Italians have historically looked up to the UK. What Starmer did this week not only gives a beacon to European nations, but will also give a push for Meloni ​as she sell the idea at home,’ he said. “There’s a lot of goodwill amongst citizens right now because people are afraid.”

Fiscally cautious, Meloni is likely to “do a Starmer” and introduce the defence boost in stages.

But the Italian PM wants more, and is proposing the creation of a pan-European Recovery and Resilience Facility, like the​ ​£600 billion joint debt scheme adopted for the -19 crisis.

One idea is to use £75 billion from that ​fund as a launching pad​.

“Increasing defence spending must be a goal to boost industry and growth,” said Italy’s Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti.

“That is why a Recovery Plan for defence is needed. If each country starts moving independently, costs for the state will inevitably rise irrationally.”

Prof James Newell, of Italy’s University of Urbino, said: “Meloni is under a lot of pressure: from Trump, a hesitant Italian public, and ​mounting Italian debt which means she is constrained by rules under the EU’s growth and stability pact.

“If she can get a European agreement to form some sort of common approach in terms of defence spending then she will have won a great victory.”