Pro-Brexit member of public (Image: PA Wire)
It is five years since Great Britain (GB) left the EU and nine years since the country voted to leave. I say GB very deliberately since Northern Ireland (NI) was partially left behind, still linked to the EU single market. But more of that later.
Our exit from the technocratic, anti-democratic EU has already yielded benefits for GB. First and foremost it means that a sovereign Parliament is elected by the British people and that Parliament, with an executive government, is able to make laws and decisions for itself on behalf of the nation, albeit for good or ill. That freedom and independence would alone be worth paying for, it is a forever thing and the long-term advantages and benefits cannot even be imagined. What is certain is that these would not be available if we were ruled by an unelected European Commission, by a European Parliament full of MEPs elected by other states and dominated by Germany, for undoubtedly Germany now has control of its European project.
What is particularly gratifying however is that, as I predicted, far from costing us the earth as suggested by Remainers, our liberty has already spawned benefits.
The most obvious and straightforward of these is that the UK no longer has to pay a membership fee which would now be in excess of £24 billion per year. Around a third of this would be spent in Britain but only on projects approved by the EU and effectively promoting the EU.
Britain has recently been identified as the second most sought after destination for investment by company CEOs, second only to the USA. Despite the best efforts of a malign EU, London retains a high status as a centre for financial services and trading and Britain’s freedom to set its own regulations enables a fleet of foot approach to maintain London’s exceptional advantages.
Being part of the EU by contrast, would mean a commitment to adopt the euro in place of sterling with the European Central Bank setting irrespective of whether these are suitable for us. We would have to endure: money supply issues which affect inflation and UK taxpayer guarantees of the eu central bank debt , the debt of the other member states bust financial systems and of the many phenomenally expensive financial schemes which are underpinned by Europe’s taxpayers.
Some external tariffs on goods have been reduced or removed, nowhere near as many as could be, but these adjustments have nonetheless contributed to reducing inflation, reducing the .
Similarly, all of the EU trade arrangements with third countries have been rolled over for the UK via independent deals, something that the EU claimed would be impossible prior to leaving, and additional deals have been signed with Australia, New Zealand and with the Trans Pacific partnership adding Malaysia and all of the future potential of that group and any new members which may join.
The history of trade deals is that initial predictions underestimate the effects of innovation, the multiplier effects of supply chains and future developments within the parties. There is almost no single market in services within the EU, the single market being designed to sell German manufactures, and yet the UK is able to maintain a services trade surplus with the rest of the world. We can now explore trade deals designed for us rather than be a member of a trade arrangement which was not, the EU was not.
There have also been a multitude of small rules and restrictions removed and avoided, all adding to the ability of the UK to outperform Germany and France, at least until the new Government decided to crash the economy.
It is remarkable how well the UK has done outside the EU. Despite that, huge potential that remains untapped. The principal reasons for this untapped potential are two fold.
British governments, both Conservative and Labour, have willingly allowed themselves to fall into the trap laid by the EU during our exit negotiations, that Northern Ireland would remain within the single market coupled with the Republic of Ireland. Not only did the PM Theresa May’s administration try to lock us into the Customs Union and undermine the vote of the people of Britain, it also collaborated in seceding a proportion Northern Ireland sovereignty to a foreign power. A secession ultimately signed off by in the face of a hostile Parliament. The best way to encourage the continued presence of NI in the UK is to make Great Britain very successful by divergence rather than being trapped into trying to maintain alignment.
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The second reason is simply that a significant proportion of the establishment never wanted and have tried their hardest to undermine moves towards divergence presumably in the hope of making it easier to return in the future. Part of this has been a refusal to control migration, despite us now having control of our borders. Whitehall appear to have been major blockers, however Ministers have also used migration as a means to seek economic growth, a growth that is false given that it has resulted in falling average GDP per capita, thus making Britain increasingly poorer, not to mention the stress on public services created by unprecedented numbers entering the country.
Britain has now fallen to only the thirtieth richest country in the world in purchasing power terms and continues to decline.
The potential to be an independent nation remains. We can control our borders if there is a will to do so, however things have become worse under Labour.
Cutting business and personal taxes is now possible. Deregulation could be pursued as could cutting the size of the state. All these are economic growth measures. All these would mean divergence from the EU.
Ending the Net Zero policy madness could immediately boost growth and lower the , again diverging from the EU consensus.
We have had a revolution. Revolutions rarely succeed as they might if the establishment is left in place. The political landscape in Britain is pointing to a further revolution with the emergence of Reform threatening Labour seats and a move towards sovereign and pro-growth policies in a resurgent Conservative Party, itself climbing out from under the left-leaning Heseltine phalanx. All is to play for five years on from and in the longrun will win out as the state of the world demonstrates what a good decision we made.
John Longworth is an entrepreneur and businessman, Chairman of the Independent (IBN) Network of family businesses and a former MEP