Trump CAN broker a peace deal for Ukraine… but he may need more than 24 hours

Tomorrow the 47th President of the United States will be sworn in, having pledged he would bring peace between and within “24 hours” – quite a claim, even for someone with a CV as impressive as .

Yet even if the world gives the new President longer than a day to achieve such a monumental goal, is such a deal possible after almost three years of all-out war?

There is no doubt that wants and needs peace, and hopefully a “fair” one however hard that will be to define.

Losing service personnel and land at a worrying rate, its leader, President now talks openly about needing a settlement.

With ’s support from the West never being more than half-hearted and in danger of being significantly reduced, there is only going to be one winner in the long run: .

The widespread feeling therefore is will not want to halt the war just as it is getting on top: instead, it will seek to erase from the map.

However, such a view underestimates the harm the war is doing to .

Its president, , pictured, will not lose any sleep over the fact that so many Russian and foreign troops have died fighting a needless war against its neighbour. But he will be deeply concerned that ’s economy is suffering badly as a result of the war. The Russian rouble fell to 115 to one US dollar earlier this month, the lowest on record excluding the immediate shock after the start of ’s invasion of early in 2022.

This dramatic fall is the consequence of sanctions that have isolated from global financial and commodity markets. Furthermore, China’s weakening economy has limited the demand for goods from ’s largest export partner. ’s economy has other problems too. The nation ended 2024 with a household inflation rate above 13%, making life tough for everyone, particularly the poor.

Economic experts predict 2025 will bring “stagflation” (inflation, stagnant economic growth and elevated unemployment), a banking crisis and rising bankruptcies.

The general inflation rate in last year was little better, at 9.5%.

We do not know the scale of Russian casualties but its “meat-grinder” tactics on the frontline mean that in nearly three years of all-out war perhaps 200,000 of its service personnel have been killed and three times that number injured.

The fact it has had to recruit soldiers from North Korea is an indicator that its military manpower is stretched.

Unsurprisingly, the number of young Russians wanting to fight for their country is small, given that stories circulate about the lack of well-being for troops and the poor medical aid for those who are wounded. Hundreds of thousands of young Russians have fled the country to avoid being recruited, leading to tougher draft laws for those who remain. The need for men on the frontline is so severe that even with tens of thousands of foreigners recruited, has resorted to freeing prisoners – including murderers and paedophiles – to boost its ranks.

The war has also led to significant personal embarrassments for Putin.

First there was the short-lived mutiny in June 2023, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group.

More recently, there was ’s incursion into the Kursk region – the first time in 80 years that Russian soil has been seized by another nation.

So Putin needs peace but a deal that he can portray to the Russian people as a victory. currently illegally holds nearly 20% of ’s territory and President Zelensky has acknowledged it does not have the military capability to seize back land referred to as the “Occupied Territories”.

Any peace deal would perhaps have – in the short term at least – keeping the land it has seized and with some sort of demilitarised zone between the two sides. wants Nato membership but is realistic enough to accept it will not get it in the short term. It will, however, need binding “security guarantees” from the West because its leaders know a short-lived peace deal – one that enables to regroup and launch another attack against its weakened neighbour – is worse than no peace deal at all.

Contrary to widespread fears, I do not expect Trump to turn his back on . I am confident his team already has the basis of a peace deal, one that he will be tough in imposing on both sides. In simple terms, I expect Trump to say to Zelensky that if accepts it and does not, he will immediately cut back on aid to .

Equally, he is capable of telling Putin that if accepts it and does not, he will increase aid to . That would make a long war inevitable, weakening further.

So, if he is canny, Trump can negotiate a peace deal, one that is badly needed by both warring nations.

However, he might just need 24 weeks, rather than 24 hours, to get it signed and delivered.

• Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit and follow him on X/Facebook @LordAshcroft