Not reaching an agreement before Thursday’s deadline would open up the likelihood of sending the two parties to arbitration for a second consecutive year
How badly do the Blue Jays want Vlad Guerrero Jr. to be a part of their long-term future and how much do they view the all-star slugger as the key to their competitive fortunes in both the near and not-so-near time frame?
We’re about to find out the latest signal from a front office that lately has wavered from indifference to insulting the team’s lone home-grown superstar so far in what is coming up on a 10-year relationship between the two parties.
The latest flashpoint is due to arrive on Thursday at 1 p.m., the MLB deadline for eligible players to avoid the potential messiness of an arbitration hearing to settle their monetary differences.
While Jays general manager Ross Atkins prefers to dismiss the arbitration process as merely a detached-from-emotion part of business, it can be much more — especially with so much at stake, as is the case with Guerrero.
Not reaching an agreement before Thursday’s deadline would open up the likelihood of sending the two parties to arbitration for a second consecutive year and arguably could be the strongest statement yet that Guerrero is not just willing, but determined to run — not walk — into free agency next November.
But given that the Jays have let it get this far without signing their star to an extension beyond his arbitration-eligible years, even if they were able to save face with Guerrero prior to Thursday, it likely would mean little long-term.
This is the bed Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro have made, a sloppy bit of business that certainly appears to be hindering their ability to do improve a roster in need of much repair so far this off-season.
The sense around baseball seems to be that if the Jays can’t get their biggest superstar to take the bundles of Rogers Communications cash, why would big-name free agents around the league consider the same and come to a last-place team that has failed to noticeably improve this winter?
And so the vicious circle spins, with Guerrero at the centre of it and wielding all of the leverage the same way he handles one of the most lethal bats in all of baseball.
The dynamics could shift in an instant, should the Jays reach an agreement with Guerrero to avoid a hearing. MLB Trade Rumours pegs Guerrero to land a deal for $29.6 million US should he go the arbitration route.
Will the Jays try to save some money and low ball Guerrero like they did a year ago when they offered $18.05 million and then lost the arbitration hearing when the 25-year-old was awarded $19.9 million? It would seem foolhardy, but the fact we’ve come this far speaks volumes.
Guerrero made it clear where he stands by attending the hearing this past February to listen to what the Jays had to say about not paying him what he felt he was worth. Afterwards, he somewhat gleefully explained his attendance by declaring: “If I don’t go, I lose.”
In the aftermath, Atkins was dismissive of the process, contrite even.
“It’s up to us to assure it’s behind us and that’s on me, not on Vladdy,” Atkins said at the MLB media day in Tampa, shortly after the hearing. “Our interactions have been healthy and productive and as we move forward they will be much more earnest.”
But have they been?
Reports suggest that the two sides have had talks and it’s certainly possible that an arbitration-avoiding deal gets hammered out before the Thursday deadline. It’s also possible that the Jays could agree to the projected figures and then continue to negotiate a long-term deal.
Time is ticking on that as well, of course, as Guerrero has publicly stated that he won’t talk extension beyond the official beginning of spring training sometime in mid-February.
Recognizing the situation is fluid, Guerrero has made it clear where he stands. In his recent interview on the Abriendo Sports podcast, he said he rejected a $340-million offer from the team and popular sentiment is that he believes he’s worth at least $100 million more.
Hard to argue that if he has a standout 2025 season, he’d be worth at least that on the open market.
Overriding it all is the reality that the longer it goes on, however, the more we have to wonder how much the Jays really view Guerrero as the centrepiece of their long-term success.
Was management scared off by so-so seasons (by Guerrero’s standards, anyway) in 2022 and 2023? Do their own internal metrics suggest something different than the eye test and the more conventional statistical measurement?
No matter what happens prior to the Thursday MLB deadline and prior to the mid-February Vlad-imposed deadline and in next year’s free agency, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is going to be paid.
More and more, however, it seems like it’s going to be decided on the open market.