Assad’s fall was met with mass celebrations in Syria, but major powers are watching closely. (Image: Getty)
One major country is best placed to work with the new government after rebels toppled country’s brutal regime in a sensational lightning attack this week, according to an expert.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have been capturing major cities in the country since its offensive began in November, fighting alongside other opposition groups, including the National Army (SNA), which is backed by .
After capturing strongholds in ‘s Aleppo and Idlib provinces, .
For the past 13 years, a civil war has ravaged the country, though analysts say it was actually a proxy war driven by global and regional powers including , the US, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
Various states have an interest in the strategically important country, which borders , Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon.
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But Middle East expert Dr Nader Hashemi believes one power is best placed to work with the new government, in whatever form it takes.
He told Express.co.uk “I think their biggest regional backer will be While has officially listed the HTS as a terrorist organisation, that’s more formal than substantive.
“HTS has been running the northern province of Idlib for several years under Turkish protection. has close relationships with the HTS, and is really hoping to, I think, exploit this change of government in to expand its influence in the new Syria that is emerging.
The expert added: “There’s huge business opportunities, economic opportunities, in the context of rebuilding a broken that has been devastated by 15 years of war.
“Turkey also has an interest in returning the roughly four million refugees that are living in Turkey. wants to have those people go back.”
For these reasons, Dr Hashemi believes Anakara is in the strongest position to support the HTS “both geographically and politically – and also ideologically”.
The academic, who is an Associate Professor of Middle East and Islamic Politics at Georgetown and director of the American university’s Alwaleed Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, is “very sceptical” about the prospects of the new government working with and allowing them to retain their bases in the country over Moscow’s backing of Assad.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Image: Getty)
He said: ” is viewed as a government that was deeply complicit in the oppression of the people under the old regime.
“What did to save the Assad regime in 2015, and its bombing campaigns against rebel forces and the people. will not be soon forgotten.
“The fact that has now given safe haven to Bashar al-Assad just deepens this feeling of betrayal and anger.”
has two key military bases in the country and had been a stanch ally of Barshar al-Assad, intervening in the civil war to protect his regime.
Assad fled Damascus to Moscow as his government fell, and the Kremlin has since confirmed that he has been given safe haven there.
Dr Hashemi said one possible – but doubtful – scenario is that gives up Assad in exchange for keeping their bases there, though he noted it’s not a strong possibility as “I think the mood in now is very much a mood where people want to establish sovereignty over their territory, and they don’t want foreign intervention and foreign military bases.
“That applies both to and the United States, and Turkey, and , all of whom control different parts of today, so I don’t think that’s an option on the table.”
Syrians stormed Assad’s palace as the regime he inherited from his father fell, (Image: Getty)
The US is keen to establish relations with the new administration, but has made clear its position of wanting to support a transition to democracy, whilst ensuring human rights of minorities are protected, inclusive governance, and a government that distances itself from terrorism.
Dr Hashemi said: “That’s the sticking point. Because the current leader of the HTS, Jolani, is on the US terrorism list. And the term ‘terrorism’ is not an objective category. It’s used by the United States and its allies to basically target any group that is opposing US interests in the region.
“So I suspect that that’s going to be a point of contention between the United States and this new government that’s emerging.
“It’s going to be a major sticking point because needs to be rebuilt. It needs to have economic sanctions lifted, and it’s the United States that has imposed heavy economic sanctions on , revolving around questions of terrorism.”
The opposition forces groups, led by Abu Mohammed al Jolani, have installed a transition government to run the country until March, as it navigates a chaotic post-Assad period.
Mohammed al Bashir has been named as the acting Prime Minister and it’s not yet clear what form the next administration will take.
On Sunday, US President said Assad’s fall is “a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country,” but “also a moment of risk and uncertainty”.
The incoming Commander-in-Chief , who returns to the Oval Office in January, made clear Syria’s next steps were not his concern.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he wrote: “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”