Who could replace Michel Barnier as Macron’s government on the verge of collapse?

is facing a no-confidence vote today, which is expected to result in his ousting from office. This means Emmanuel Macron is facing the difficult task of appointing his sixth Prime Minister since he was first elected President in 2017.

Leading figures are already jockeying for position, with names in the frame including current Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu and right-winger Bruno Retailleau.

France is in intense political turmoil, with Mr Barnier’s government struggling to secure the support of both the left-wing opposition and far-right factions.

Mr Barnier, 73, the ’s former chief negotiator, who has only been in his current job since September, has endured a torrid time in recent weeks and has even been mockingly compared to Babar the elephant, the famous French children’s character, on social media.

The immediate trigger for the crisis stems from the government’s failure to pass the 2025 budget, leading Mr Barnier to invoke Article 49.3 of the French Constitution. This highly controversial move bypasses a parliamentary vote.

This, coupled with his reliance on Marine Le Penh’s far-right National Rally for support, has compounded Mr Barnier’s unpopularity.

Prior to Mr Barnier, Mr Macron had been through four Prime Ministers: Édouard Philippe, Jean Castex, Elisabeth Borne, and Gabriel Attal—the youngest person ever to be given the job.

Mr Barnier was brought in to try to steady the ship after a snap election called by Mr Macron resulted in political gridlock, but the move has backfired.

Now 43-year-old Mr Macron is facing a daunting challenge in appointing a successor, with several names in the frame, each representing different wings of the political spectrum:

Sebastien Lecornu

The current Minister for the Armed Forces, Mr Lecornu, is a potential frontrunner.

A close ally of Macron, he is seen as a stabilising figure who could maintain continuity in government.

The 38-year-old has carefully remained above the fray recently and has continued to focus on his day job.

Nevertheless, commenting on X on the National Assembly’s refusal to back Mr Barnier’s Budget earlier this week, he said: “The vote of censure of the Government, and therefore of the absence of a budget for the year 2025, would break this essential momentum for the protection of our fellow citizens, by preventing the proposed increase of 3.3 billion euros for our defence budget.

Francois Bayrou

Mr Bayrou, 73, is a centrist who has long been aligned with Macron’s political movement, although his influence has waned somewhat in recent years.

Likewise, as a close ally of Mr Macron, he may be seen as a trusted choice. However, some critics question his appeal to younger voters and his adaptability to the evolving political landscape.

Speaking to French broadcaster BMFTV at the end of last month, he said: “I am committed to the future of my country, for years and until the end.

“A citizen is someone who never lays down his arms, who does not give up his hopes, his ideals and his indignations.”

Bruno Retailleau

The leader of the conservative Republicans is also seen as a contender, offering a more right-wing alternative, which may appeal to both conservative and centrist factions.

The 64-year-old’s principled approach has drawn admiration, but his hardline stance might clash with Macron’s centrist vision, raising questions about ideological cohesion.

Speaking to C-News today, he said: “We can do it. I want to show the French people since I arrived at the ministry, that politics is not powerless, that we can make things move, and it is also showing that we can be sincere.

“That is to say, we can align convictions, words and actions. So that the French believe in politics again.”

Bernard Cazeneuve

The 61-year-old, who previously served in the job from 2016 to 2017 under former President Francois Hollande, is a less likely but still notable figure.

His experience and moderate positions could be seen as assets in the current crisis, and his potential appointment could signal an attempt by Macron to bridge divides with the left.

However, his past criticisms of Macron’s policies could complicate collaboration.

Nevertheless, speaking in September before Mr Barnier’s appointment, the lawyer said he was “ready to do his duty”.

Other possible candidates include figures like Gerald Darmanin, 42, the current Minister for the Interior, though his controversial stance on immigration may make him divisive.

Long-shot options might also include figures like Laurent Wauquiez, 49, head of the right-wing Republicans, who could bring a more conservative approach to governance.

However, given the volatile political environment, Mr Macron’s choice must balance appeasing both the left and right wings of his fractured parliament.

Whoever is appointed will face immediate challenges, including navigating France’s massive budget deficit, securing political stability ahead of upcoming elections and rebuilding public confidence.