Anti-government forces have stormed their way to victory in Aleppo (Image: Getty)
Anti-government forces assault on , ’s second largest city, seems to have taken almost everyone by surprise. So much for the “transparent battlefield” modern military leaders speak of. The rebels’ uprising seems to have come out of the blue.
Syrian government forces withdrew from Aleppo in the face of the onslaught and the city is now under the control of two opposing parties.
And it may also signal a potentially decisive turn in the Syrian civil war, which despite a hiatus over the past few years has been ongoing since 2011.
The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control the northern and eastern neighbourhoods of Aleppo and two major airports. In the western districts, rebel factions — including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly aligned with , and other groups backed by — hold sway.
The situation is complicated further by the presence elsewhere of a number of other factions, including remnants of IS, with conflicting interests and allegiances. If you can decipher exactly who supports whom you’re a better man than me.
In the face of this onslaught, the Syrian government, which had previously controlled approximately 70% of the country, pulled back, ceding control of Aleppo.
This marks a significant strategic setback for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who had relied on Russian and Iranian support to maintain his grip on power. Now, with Aleppo firmly in rebel hands, the balance of power has shifted, leaving the regime scrambling to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape.
Both Iran and Iranian-backed in Syria have been weakened by recent conflict with and the rebel assault may be seeking to take advantage of their perceived weakness.
The role of Turkiye is more difficult to interpret. Its support for HTS and other anti-Assad rebel factions adds a further layer of complexity.
Turkey’s backing of these groups stems from a desire to limit Kurdish influence in the region, viewing the SDF as a direct extension of the PKK, a Kurdish separatist movement that has long been at odds with Turkey.
While HTS has been labelled a terrorist organisation, Ankara’s support for the group is motivated by pragmatic political considerations. Its goal is to curb Kurdish autonomy in Syria while bolstering its influence in the country’s northwest. Awkward that the USA is a fellow member of NATO too, as both are supporting opposing sides.
It looks like that having captured Aleppo the rebels are heading south to Damascus. Reportedly Assad’s forces are now scrambling to form a defensive position to the north of Hama, thereby preventing the rebels further penetration south to Homs and then on to Damascus.
The rebel advance has implications for too, which remains a key player in Syria’s future. Moscow has long been committed to preserving Assad’s regime, seeing Syria as a vital ally in the . However, ’s intervention has been belated, with Russian airstrikes on Aleppo coming only after much of the city had fallen to the rebels.
Should the rebels overcome the government forces in its path and reach the city of Homs, ’s important naval base at Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast will be effectively cut off from its overland communications.
This the Russians will want to avoid at all costs, because with transit of the Bosphorus denied to it on account of the war, any naval reinforcement to its presence in Tartus might have to come from as far away as the Baltic Sea.
Realistically, however, a rebel push towards Damascus faces substantial military and logistical challenges, and the potential for infighting among rebel factions remains high. Assad still has the backing of his armed forces, and it is unlikely that the regime will surrender the capital without a protracted and bloody fight should push come to shove.
The next phase of this conflict promises to be just as unpredictable as the last. The path to peace, if it comes at all, remains obscured by shifting alliances, military deadlock, and the entrenched interests of international players. Aleppo may have fallen, but Syria’s future remains up for grabs.
At this juncture a coup unseating Assad and his government seems distinctly possible, but there’s a ways to go yet.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at