This weekend is a good bet if you’re hoping for dry, pleasant conditions at the pumpkin patch or apple orchard.
Fall is the season for outdoor activities, including hay rides, apple picking, and visits to the pumpkin patch, culminating with trick-or-treating on Halloween. But fall weather can also be cold, wet and very unpredictable.
We checked with Environment Canada and other weather-watchers to see what’s in the forecast for October and how likely it is we’ll be getting those cool, crisp autumn days that’s perfect for family outings.
When’s a good time to visit the pumpkin patch?
If you’re a kid, the answer is any time. But parents might want to try to pick a day when venturing into a pumpkin patch or corn maze doesn’t turn into a muddy adventure.
So far, this weekend is the best bet — a guaranteed dry one after Friday’s soaker.
“I would take that to the bank and say plan for Saturday and Sunday,” said Environment Canada meteorologist Armel Castellan.
The system that hit the B.C. south coast on Friday was a remnant of an atmospheric river, noted Castellan. It’ll dump a lot of rain, but sweep through fast, and by the time Saturday and Sunday rolls around, the weather will be a mix of sun and clouds with possible sprinkles for the Northern half of Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast.
Both days will be warm with temperatures hovering around 16 to 17 C, a couple degrees above seasonal.
But forecasts further into the month are iffier, said Castellan. Speaking generally, in later October, B.C. gets deeper into an active storm pattern.
“You’re playing a bit of roulette if you think you can wait until the second half of October and get a guaranteed Saturday and Sunday that’s dry,” he said. “It’s definitely possible, but the climatological statistics there aren’t super favourable.”
The Weather Network makes forecasts 14 days ahead and is currently predicting a mix of sun and clouds on the Oct. 12 and 13 weekend, with unseasonably high temperatures.
It’s also predicts fewer storms than normal for most of Canada, except for B.C. and Alberta. “The active and wet pattern, which has been impacting Northern and central B.C., should shift farther south as the month progresses,” it said in its October forecast.
Given the challenges of predicting weather accurately more than a week in advance, however, meteorologists recommend checking forecasts closer to your desired weekend.
How will La Nina affect this fall/winter season?
La Nina is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that typically brings cooler temperatures and higher precipitation.
Environment Canada’s Castellan said La Niña is likely to materialize in the coming months and hold steady into the first quarter of 2025.
“This winter will be cool and wetter if La Niña transpires, which looks like it will,” said Castellan.
But he added a caveat that this season’s La Niña has a “noisier signal” that makes it hard to predict beyond the short term. “It’s never a super sound forecast with La Nina. It helps gives you an indication, but not a guarantee.”
Citing the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Sean Fleming, an adjunct UBC professor of atmospheric sciences, said early projections show a 71 per cent chance that a La Nina weather pattern will move in.
If those projections are accurate, Fleming said that could mean greater snowpack and greater water supply availability for the next spring and summer, but also a greater than average potential for flooding this winter.
Will it rain on Halloween?
At this point, it’s hard to say. If you’re the betting type, note that Oct. 31 is a day shy of November, the rainiest month of the year.
Historical data could also give an indication of what’s in store for this year’s trick-or-treaters.
Based on Environment Canada’s 30-year data set from 1991 to 2020, Vancouver International Airport receives an average of 124 millimetres of rain for the month of October — that’s more than double the average amount seen in September (52 mm) and 51 mm less than November’s rainfall (175 mm).
Typically, about half of October, or 15.4 days, gets no rain or only a trace amount, calculated as 0.2 mm or less.
Eight out of 31 days saw rainfall of 5 mm or more, while heavy rain of more than 10 mm occurred on five days in October.
Rain or not, much like September, Castellan said meteorologists are expecting warmer-than-usual temperatures, including for Halloween.
And in case you’re wondering if there’s ever been a white Halloween, the answer is yes, but “excessively rare,” said Castellan. In 1991, two centimetres of snow fell on Oct. 28, creating an early winter wonderland for little gremlins and witches. It also snowed on Oct. 29 and 30 in 1971.
With files from CP