A new poll finds that while the Conservatives are still ahead thanks to new types of voters moving to the party, the NDP’s David Eby would still make the best premier.
The B.C. Conservatives remain slightly ahead of the NDP in B.C.’s very tight election race, partly fuelled by women and younger voters switching to the Tories, according to a new Leger poll.
Women and young people don’t typically gravitate toward centre-right parties, which means Conservative Leader John Rustad has managed to convince them that he’s a more moderate leader than initially anticipated by the electorate, said Steve Mossop, Western Canada executive vice-president of Leger Marketing.
“That image that he’s portraying … has worked with the voters in those categories.”
Paradoxically, though, NDP Leader David Eby is still far more popular than Rustad when it comes to who would make the best fit as premier, the poll found.
It’s rare, Mossop said, to have a leader as unknown as Rustad. The support for his party, rather than for the leader, is most likely propelled by the popularity of the federal Conservatives right now.
B.C. Tories have the backing of 46 per cent of decided voters, up four points over the last two weeks. NDP support at 43 per cent and Green support at 10 per cent remain relatively unchanged — which means those parties aren’t necessarily losing favour, but that the Conservatives have all the momentum with undecided voters, Mossop said.
Nine per cent of respondents are undecided, an unusually low number half way through the campaign, but that small group could become the kingmakers.
“Depending on where those people go, that could sway the outcome of the election. So it’s still a tossup at this point,” Mossop said.
The poll found an increase in women who approve of the Conservatives, with 42 per cent saying they would back the party compared with 35 per cent two weeks ago. A larger number of women (46 per cent), though, continue to support the NDP.
The Conservatives have also picked up ground with younger voters, at the expense of the Greens and NDP. Nearly half of voters age 18 to 34 now plan to vote blue, compared with 38 per cent two weeks ago.
It would be “risky” though for the Conservatives to bank on a victory based on more support from younger voters, because this age group has traditionally been the least likely to actually show up at the ballot box, Mossop noted.
And the poll found this age group is twice as likely as 35- to 54-year-olds and four times as likely as older British Columbians to change their minds about how they will vote.
Voters have shifted to the Conservatives across the province, the poll found, but most notably on Vancouver Island; the party now has 38 per cent support there, compared with 30 per cent two weeks ago. At the same time, Green support on the Island has fallen by half from 14 per cent two weeks ago to just seven now.
“That is shocking too,” Mossop said. “I’m not sure really why the Greens have performed so poorly because (Leader Sonia) Furstenau is quite a likeable individual.”
The NDP, though, still remain in the lead on the Island, with the endorsement of nearly half the residents.
Nearly half of survey respondents continue to think Eby would make the best premier, compared with just over a third favouring Rustad. Despite this, voters may be willing to back the Conservatives because recent polls have consistently found that a majority of people think that B.C. is on the wrong track, Mossop said.
“Eby is a likeable guy, but it’s the direction that they’re kind of tired of,” Mossop said.
This is the third omnibus poll Leger has conducted since the campaign began Sept. 21. Housing/affordability has consistently been the most important issue for voters, but concern about health care has grown each week and it’s approaching the top spot.
While access to medical care is very important to residents older than 55, and fairly important to those 35 to 54, it’s a lower priority for the youngest voting block. Those 18 to 34 worry disproportionately more about housing and inflation.
Leger questioned 1,002 British Columbians between Sept. 27 and 30. A sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus/minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.