What just happened at Tory conference could swing the balance of power in the election

The four speeches we saw today have rather unhelpfully made the outcome of the Tory leadership election even more difficult to predict.

None of them blundered, all of them got cheers, claps, laughter and various sizes of standing ovations.

For the first time during this leadership race, it appeared to me that Robert Jenrick’s frontrunner status had become a burden rather than a help.

He didn’t falter, far from it, but the expectations for him were much higher than the other three, with comparisons he must achieve the heights of David Cameron’s infamous notes-free speech in 2005.

While the others spent a large percentage of their speeches introducing themselves and their backstories, Mr Jenrick delivered a different speech altogether, the sort of speech one would expect a leader to deliver after having won the crown, not during the contest.

Instead of echoing Cameron, we in fact got Blair. Mr Jenrick announced his plan for a “New ”, something I felt was greeted with a mixture of rabid approval, suspicion and pockets of hostility among more centrist members in the audience.

While Kemi Badenoch have a confident appearance, and one which betrayed none of the rumoured harsh edges of her conflict-happy personality, she was dealt a blow by , whose speech was far and away the best of the day.

The problem for the three candidates battling out for second place – Badenoch, Cleverly and Tugendhat – is that the sheer diminished size of the Conservative parliamentary party means, as one campaign aid put it to me last night, a meagre three-vote lead over a rival can be considered a huge margin.

’s barnstorming performance was an overt pitch to the centre ground of the party, unlike Tom Tugendhat who, as the leading centrist candidate, decided to use his speech to persuade members he is right-wing enough for them.

The former Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, uniquely, has a Prime Ministerial gravitas to him, and in the room you could feel people leaning further forwards in their seats, relaxing, smiling and getting on board the Cleverly hype train.

His message of “let’s be more normal” and “let’s sell the benefit of conservatism with a smile” felt like a ray of sunshine was breaking through the clouds of doom, and his bold opening with a sincere “sorry” to activists who had been let down by MP infighting and factionalism over the past few years landed well.

His promise to reject becoming ‘Reform light’ and doing any mergers or deals with also secured a clapometer-breaking response – possibly the biggest of any moment during the four speeches.

The problem now is that the race for second place in the final two, with Jenrick still expected to win the upcoming knockout stages, has become even more unpredictable.

We leave Birmingham with the betting markets in turmoil, political forecasters flummoxed and the possibility of the eventual winner of the contest failing to secure an overwhelming mandate from the members.

What happens on November 2 is now, more than ever, anyone’s guess.