Vaughn Palmer: But leak of B.C. United’s detailed opposition research on the Conservatives handed the NDP plenty of material for attack ads
VICTORIA — The opinion polls from the first week of the election campaign show the New Democrats in a dead heat with the Conservatives, raising questions about the effectiveness of the big-spending agenda that David Eby has pursued since becoming premier.
When Eby took office in November 2022, he inherited an almost $6 billion surplus from John Horgan. The money could have been used to pay down the accumulated debt. He spent most of it in the few months remaining in the financial year, then budgeted for a $4 billion deficit in the year ahead.
It wasn’t enough. The shortfall ended up at $5 billion when the books were closed.
For the current financial year, Eby budgeted for a record $8 billion deficit. The most recent update says he has already blown past that target and is headed for $9 billion.
So, almost $6 billion plus $5 billion plus a projected $9 billion — $20 billion in extra spending in all.
Nor has Eby deigned to produce a plan to eventually bring the books back into balance, though he claims to believe in doing such a thing someday. The NDP response is that none of this matters. The public no longer cares about debt and deficits. It only wants more spending on programs and capital projects.
But if the public were as enthusiastic about all this spending as the New Democrats claim, then shouldn’t they be cruising for a win instead of being locked into the fight of their lives?
Eby is embarked on spending a record $20 billion that the government doesn’t have after two years in office. Yet here he is, locked in a dead heat with a party that barely existed when he became premier.
The New Democrats have used the enormous, publicly funded resources of government to try and dominate the news cycle. They’ve staged media event after media event, not hesitating to announce much the same thing again and again, counting on no one to notice.
The government’s problem is that its promises are being undone by widely reported results on the ground. The crime-infested tent encampments sprouting in community after community. The bus shelter that no one can use because of who is living inside it.
Housing that is more expensive than ever, despite a string of NDP housing initiatives going back to the 30-point plan announced in February 2018.
Billions more for health care and 45,000 more workers claimed and still the ER closures continue. Suspicions abound that the government is trying to keep a lid on the latter by directing hospitals to hold off announcing “temporary interruptions” until the last minute, hoping the news media won’t notice and report the latest closure.
Still the spending promises continue.
Among other things, in the first few days of the campaign, Eby has already promised $6.5 billion in low interest loans to underwrite 25,000 units of “middle class” housing, plus a new hospital tower in Nanaimo.
No costing on the latter, but from recent experience, figure close to $1 billion.
In short, despite the disappointing results from the spending spree, Eby has concluded that it’s too late to stop now.
The week also delivered a wakeup call for the Conservatives, especially one finding from an Angus Reid poll. The Reid organization asked respondents if “B.C. Conservative party Leader John Rustad’s views are too extreme for him to become premier?”
Half agreed, some strongly.
The view will likely be reinforced by the contents of the B.C. United party’s research on Rustad and the Conservatives. It was obtained and posted by Jas Johal, the former B.C. Liberal MLA now hosting the afternoon show on CKNW. The material runs almost 200 pages, making it perhaps the single most impressive piece of research produced by B.C. United during its short, interrupted life span.
Had United put this kind of effort into rebranding itself, more voters might have heard of it before it ceased operations in August.
Not surprisingly, the New Democrats were already making use of the material for attack ads on Friday. If billions in spending won’t do it for them, maybe they pull ahead by promoting the theme that Rustad is an extremist, presiding over more than a few crackpots.
Rustad didn’t help matters this week by refusing to answer questions from reporters when a video surfaced of him disparaging the “so-called COVID-19 vaccine.” Only later did he explain that he supports vaccinations for the flu and measles.
His concern about the COVID vaccine was derived from personal experience — a heart problem that surfaced after one vaccination.
The amateurish initial response and delayed explanation was enough to raise doubts about whether Rustad is fully prepared for the campaign ordeal and ready to govern.
While the major parties were locked in a standoff, the Greens marked the first week by announcing support for the carbon tax, expanded safer supply of drugs and opposition to involuntary treatment of addicts. All three stances duplicated positions that the New Democrats used to hold but abandoned under the pressures of the election.
Just the Greens way of messaging: “Vote for us” if you liked what David Eby used to say, before the opinion polls got to him.