Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement ‘red alert’ as risks mean investors cautious

Investors are “on red alert” ahead of Spring Statement, a finance firm has warned, as they watch on with “heightened caution”. An expert has outlined risks and said the Chancellor must be “bold”, as are “growing uneasy” about the fragile balancing act required to maintain credibility while fostering the investment needed for growth. Ms Reeves will set out her plans to MPs on March 26.

Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory , said: “The Government’s ability to balance with fiscal discipline is under intense scrutiny, as stubborn debt levels and sluggish expansion threaten to unnerve the markets. The stakes are high: if confidence wavers, Britain could find itself grappling with surging borrowing costs, echoing past crises that rattled the gilt market.”

Experts at the firm say the UK’s present predicament stems from a mix of “slow expansion, persistent fiscal pressures, and an increasing reliance on short-term foreign capital”. Britain, they add, has one of the largest current account deficits among advanced economies, second only to the US, with the country “heavily dependent on inflows from abroad” to fund its spending.

But, the financiers point out, the nature of these inflows has “shifted”, as long-term, productive foreign direct investment has been “giving way to more fleeting capital”, ensuring the UK’s financial position is “increasingly vulnerable to sentiment shifts”.

Mr Green said: “Investors are acutely aware of the risks. If the Government tightens spending to adhere to fiscal targets, it could further stifle growth at a time when business investment remains sluggish and productivity gains are elusive. But if Reeves signals any deviation from her fiscal rules, bondholders may demand higher yields to compensate for perceived risk, leading to a squeeze on public finances. Either path carries consequences that could reverberate across asset classes.”

He added: “For the gilt market, March 26 is not just about numbers – it’s about trust. The credibility of Britain’s economic stewardship hinges on whether the Government can present a fiscal roadmap that reassures investors while providing enough strategic flexibility to support growth. Any sign of policy uncertainty or lack of commitment to fiscal discipline could send yields soaring, with immediate repercussions for mortgages, business borrowing, and overall economic sentiment.”

Rachel Reeves is under mounting pressure as she prepares the spring statement, with economists predicting that one million more workers will be dragged into paying the higher rate of tax. This figure comes from estimates that 600,000 more taxpayers will be hit by higher rates, while an additional 400,000 will start paying income tax for the first time due to fiscal drag.

The Chancellor faces a £10 billion shortfall in the public finances, forcing her either to raise taxes or slash spending to stay within her own fiscal rules. While she has ruled out an immediate extension of the income tax threshold freeze, experts warn that so-called ‘stealth’ tax rises are likely later this year.

The tax trap stems from a policy first introduced by in 2021. As Chancellor, he froze income tax thresholds for four years, meaning the 40p tax rate kicks in at £50,271 until 2026.