Nine in 10 Canadians would vote ‘no’ in a referendum on annexation, while six in 10 Americans also have no interest in the idea.
U.S. President Donald Trump said it again yesterday. While complaining about the threat of Ontario charging more for the electricity it supplies to the U.S., he launched a lengthy defence of his proposal for Canada to become the 51st state.
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But as a new Angus Reid poll shows, neither Canadians nor most of his own citizens has any use for the idea.
The poll shows, unsurprisingly, that nine out of 10 in Canada say “no” to joining Trump’s America. What really stands out, though, is that six in 10 Americans don’t think it’s a good idea either. Even the one-third who would consider annexing their northern neighbour only support it if Canadians are also on-board.
“Asked about this idea, three in five Americans and 44 per cent of Trump voters say they have ‘no interest’ in seeing Canada join the U.S.,” said the Angus Reid Institute in a summary of the poll, an online survey conducted from Feb. 27 to March 3 of about 2,000 Canadians and 2,000 Americans. “Further, one in three Americans and 42 per cent of Trump voters say they would only be interested if the idea was supported by Canadians.
“It isn’t.”
One thing that has changed from earlier polling is that both Canadians and Americans now think Trump is serious about the threat. About 54 per cent of Canadians say they believe he means it, up from 32 per cent in January. In the U.S., those who think he’s serious rose from 22 to 34 per cent.
Trump certainly sounds serious: “The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State,” the U.S. president wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday. “This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.”
So what’s in it for us? According to Trump, it would usher in a new golden era on both sides of the “artificial” border.
“Canadians’ taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, there would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever — And Canada will be a big part of that,” he wrote with his trademark sprinkling of random capitalization.
“The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World — And your brilliant anthem, ‘O Canada,’ will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!”
Whoa, Donald, slow your roll, say most of the poll’s respondents. However, one in five current Conservative party supporters would vote yes, rising to one in three if the country delivers a Liberal majority in the next election. By contrast, only two per cent of Liberals are on side, three per cent of NDP voters and one per cent among the Bloc Québécois.
Here’s a more detailed breakdown of the results:
Number who think Trump is serious rises
As Trump continues to threaten escalating tariffs on Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — who’s in the process of handing the reins to PM-designate Mark Carney — says the president is trying to “collapse” the Canadian economy to make annexation easier.
“While those threats were seen as a joke a few months ago, the environment in March is much different,” said Angus Reid. “A majority of Canadians now feel Trump is serious (54 per cent), a 22 point increase compared to January. In the United States, 35 per cent now say Trump is serious, a 13 point jump.”
A majority from all voting groups, except Conservative voters, believe making Canada the 51st state is a “real ambition” of Trump’s.
Canadians give a resounding ‘no’ to joining
Dragon’s Den businessman Kevin O’Leary recently said he thinks half of Canadians would be interested in joining the U.S.
“We’d love to know where Mr. O’Leary is finding his data,” said the institute. Nine out of 10 said they would vote no in a referendum on the idea.
There are pockets of mild support. Among men 35 to 54 years old, 22 per cent would vote yes, more than twice as many as their female counterparts in that age group. Almost all the support for the idea comes from Tory supporters, one in five of whom would join. Only three per cent of other parties’ partisans would do the same.
The Angus Reid Institute says the data suggests there’s a political motivation. The Conservatives haven’t formed government for a decade, and support for joining the U.S. leaps in a scenario where the Liberals win another majority.
American’s don’t want Canada
The data suggests “Trump is out of step with both his country and even a significant segment of his own voters in his tariff threats and general approach to Canada,” said the institute. “The same is evidently true when it comes to the annexation of Canada.”
Sixty per cent say they have no interest at all, “while those who do are largely only interested if Canadians want to join (which they clearly do not).”
Even among Trump voters last November, “there is little desire to take Canada by either political and economic pressure (12 per cent) or by force (two per cent).”
Methodology
The online survey was among a randomized sample of 2,005 Canadian adults and 2,005 American adults who are members of an Angus Reid forum. A sample of this size has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20. It was self-commissioned and paid for by the Angus Reid Institute.