‘It’s shocking that our view of the U.S. is now veering closer to how we feel about Russia, a country that is viewed very unfavourably’
The European Union and United Kingdom have quickly emerged as the countries Canadians feel best about, just by staying positively viewed by about three-quarters of Canadians, as usual.
Historically, Canadians’ positive opinion of America has reflected a national friendship that goes deeper than the economic and military alliances that have lately fallen apart. But this opinion has “severely eroded” very quickly, falling almost 20 percentage points compared to last year, such that today, the survey suggests only one Canadian in three has a positive view of the U.S.
“It’s shocking that our view of the U.S. is now veering closer to how we feel about Russia, a country that is viewed very unfavourably,” said Jack Jedwab, president of the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies, who commissioned the survey by Leger.
“In 25 years of polling I don’t recall it ever being this low. And to see the United States viewed only a little more positive than say China, with whom we’ve had problems, shows how much damage has been done to a relationship with a country that has long seen us as its closest ally,” he said.
The survey tracked positive opinions of different countries from June of last year to today, and the only one to change significantly was the American number, from 52 per cent to 33.
Back then, President Joe Biden was still in office, before a disastrous debate led to his withdrawal from the presidential campaign. It was still possible, in fact common, to imagine Donald Trump would be seen in hindsight as a one-term aberration, a Republican Jimmy Carter.
Clearly for the time being, President Trump has soured our relationship
More than half of Canadians then held a positive opinion of America. This represented a bounce back from much lower levels in 2020, when other polling showed less than 30 per cent of Canadians had a favourable opinion of America. That low point marked declining positive opinion through the first Trump administration.
Now, the numbers are way back down. This new survey of 1,548 respondents by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies on March 1 and 2 shows the positive opinion of the U.S. is most common among young respondents aged between 25 to 34, at 42 per cent. It is lowest among those older than 55 at 27 per cent.
If asked the same question about the American people, rather than the country, the positive numbers jump, but still reach just 50 per cent overall.
“While the 50 per cent is low compared to past surveys, it still shows that a distinction is being made between our views of Americans and our view of their current government,” Jedwab said. “Clearly for the time being, President Trump has soured our relationship.”
Other countries are all stable over the last year, moving no more than two percentage points: Ukraine at 66 per cent, Israel at 36 per cent, China at 30 per cent, Iran at 17 and Russia at 18.
Young people between 18 and 24 are relatively negative on Israel, with just 24 per cent giving a positive opinion, compared to 46 per cent of those aged over 65.
Young people are relatively positive on China, at 38 per cent, compared to just 28 per cent of people older than 65.
Young people are also dramatically more keen on Iran and Russia than older people, with 30 per cent of those aged 18 to 24 holding a positive opinion of both. For those over 65, just 12 per cent are positive on Iran and nine per cent on Russia.
On gender, men are more positively disposed than women to the U.S., Israel and Russia. In the case of Israel, the split is 12 points, between 42 per cent of men with a positive view and 30 per cent of women.
Jedwab downplayed the significance of this split and said men just “tend to think they’re more engaged with these issues.”
Asked whether Trump’s “expressed interest to make Canada the 51st American State” must be taken “very seriously,” the survey found 63 per cent of people said yes, and 25 per cent said no.
That view is stronger among older Canadians. Geographically, it is weakest in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, where it falls to about 50 per cent, and highest in Ontario and British Columbia at about 66 per cent.
Jedwab attributed these geographical differences to “a varying distinction being made between the president’s words and deeds that is partly attributable to some ideological affinity.”
The survey revealed widespread skepticism that the United States might send troops across the border if Canada refuses annexation. Nearly half the country thinks this will not happen. Curiously, all provinces west of Atlantic Canada show a steady one person in five who thinks a military invasion might happen, but in Atlantic Canada there is barely one in ten.
Asked whether they would personally be willing to defend Canada from a military threat, a slim majority of 52 per cent said they would, while 26 per cent said they would not. Willingness rose clearly with age. Among 18- to 34-year-olds, the results were split almost evenly, 39 per cent yes to 38 per cent no. But the yes results increase to 48 per cent of those aged 35 to 54, and 62 per cent of those older than 55.
Only 17 per cent of respondents older than 55 said they would be unwilling to defend the country, compared to fully 38 per cent of those 18 to 34.
Geographical variation on this question is not very wide except in B.C., where there is by far the strongest willingness to defend at more than 60 per cent of respondents, compared to about 10 or 15 points lower everywhere else.
Most respondents agree that booing the Star Spangled Banner at a sporting event does not “send the right message” to Americans. Younger people are slightly more likely to endorse this behaviour, and respondents in the prairie provinces were most firmly against it.
But Canadians can get behind consumer boycotts. Almost 80 per cent agreed “buying more Canadian products is an effective way of responding” to American tariffs. Older people are slightly more enthusiastic on this point, and in the prairie provinces the number falls by ten per cent. But “Buy Canadian” is clearly a popular message, and the poll found barely one person in ten who disagreed.
Travel was a different matter. The idea of not travelling to the U.S. is much less popular than buying more Canadian stuff, though still a majority opinion. Overall, two thirds of Canadians agree a travel boycott is also an effective response, but that falls to 56 per cent among young people. It is most popular among those older than 55, with 78 per cent agreeing.
Broadly, this survey not only shows Canadians have record low positive opinions of the United States, but that the very meaning of the question has changed.
Two decades ago, for example, in 2003, Jedwab spoke to National Post about a similar opinion poll for the Association for Canadian Studies, reacting to a United Nations quality of life index that put the U.S. ahead of Canada. Back then, there was no cross border crisis to send the numbers spiralling. On the contrary, Canada was at war in support of the United States in Afghanistan.
So the poll’s questions were all about which country offered the best opportunity, not how best to defend against economic sabotage. It found Canadians with higher incomes had more positive views of America, and that conservative Canadians were more likely to see America as a land of opportunity. Overall, Canadians were evenly split on which country offered the best chance to get ahead, but the headline finding was that roughly 9 out of 10 respondents said Canada had the best quality of life, regardless what the UN said, and it wasn’t measured in dollars, either kind.
“It seems clear that Canadians are not measuring the quality of life that Canada offers by economic standards alone,” Jedwab said at the time.
Today, that attitude is under historic stress, and changing as the survey describes. “This is all about how our view of the U.S. has severely eroded over so short a period,” Jedwab said.
The Leger survey for the Association for Canadian Studies was conducted via an online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey for comparison purposes, but a probability sample of 1,539 respondents would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
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