The Trump administration on Monday announced it is suspending U.S. aid to Ukraine in an effort to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into a negotiation with the U.S. on ending the war — a long-standing demand of Donald Trump.
The move, which seemed to confirm Kyiv backers’ worst fears after Trump’s November victory, comes just days after the U.S. president clashed with his Ukrainian counterpart in the Oval Office.
“The problem is I’ve empowered you to be a tough guy and I don’t think you’d be a tough guy without the United States,” Trump told Zelenskyy on Friday. “You’re either going to make a deal or we’re out. And if we’re out you’ll fight it out. I don’t think it’s going to be pretty.”
Zelenskyy has since acknowledged that his White House visit “did not go the way it was supposed to,” adding that he is prepared to work with Trump to “bring lasting peace” to his country.
America has been Ukraine’s single biggest aid contributor since the war started, raising profound questions about what the absence of U.S. aid would mean for the country’s ability to defend itself on the battlefield.
Malcolm Chalmers, the deputy director general of the Royal United Services Institute, an independent think tank focused on defense, security and international affairs, said, “Ukraine will not collapse — they already experienced an aid cutoff last year, but the effect will be cumulative.”
Doug Klain, a policy analyst for Razom, a pro-Ukraine advocacy group, echoed Chalmers, telling HuffPost that last year’s pause in U.S. military assistance during that supplemental fight in Congress “put Russia in one of the best positions that’s been on the battlefield since the beginning of the invasion.”
“If that happens again, the Russians will have no incentive to engage in any kind of real ceasefire or peace process,” Klain said.
It should come as no surprise that the recently announced aid freeze has been welcomed by the Kremlin.
“If the U.S. suspends these supplies, it will make the best contribution to peace,” Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, said, according to The Associated Press.
Chalmers said Trump appears to believe Putin is prepared to engage in talks, while Zelenskyy is standing in the way of the potential deal the U.S. president desperately wants.
Chalmers warned that the freeze risks further emboldening Putin to make more demands on Kyiv, including demilitarization.
“Recent estimates suggest that only 20% of total military hardware supplied to Ukrainian forces is now from the U.S.,” Chalmers said. “55% is home-produced in Ukraine and 25% from Europe and the rest of the world, but the 20% is the most lethal and important.”
What will ultimately matter more, he said, is whether Europe is prepared to step up in a meaningful way to fill the void left by the U.S.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday announced that “Europe is ready to massively boost its defense spending” to respond to the challenges facing Ukraine as well as the long-term need for the continent to take more responsibility for its security — without mentioning the U.S. aid freeze.
“We are in an era of rearmament,” von der Leyen said.
Klain told HuffPost, “Europe is doing more, but there is no replacement for the United States.”
Klain said the pause will have the “greatest impact” on air defense, long-range and precision fires, and potentially also intelligence sharing.
“There’s no alternative to Patriot defense systems, and that is what makes Kyiv one of the safest places in Ukraine,” said Klain, who is also a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. “There’s no alternative to HIMARS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems], which have become so famous. These are really critical systems that Europe cannot step in to fill the role.”
The news of the aid pause also prompted an emergency meeting in the Ukrainian Parliament to discuss the impact of the U.S. policy shift on Tuesday, according to The New York Times.
While Zelenskyy has not commented on the U.S. aid freeze, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal offered reassurance about Kyiv’s ability to continue fighting in light of the apparent setback, noting that his country will continue to work with the U.S. “through all available channels in a calm manner.”
“Our military and the government have the capabilities, the tools, let’s say, to maintain the situation on the front line,” Shmyhal said at a press conference, according to Reuters.
Still, Shmyhal and many European leaders have insisted that U.S. security guarantees are critical.
The Trump administration has maintained that the rare earth minerals deal the U.S. president was scheduled to sign with Zelenskyy on Friday would be Ukraine’s best option to prevent future Russian aggression.
“If you want to actually ensure that Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine,” Vice President JD Vance, who took part in the chaotic Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy, told Fox News.
Zelenskyy on Tuesday repeated that he is prepared to sign the deal.
“We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively,” Zelenskyy said.
Against this backdrop, Klain said he will be watching Trump’s Tuesday night address to a joint session of Congress closely.
“I think it’s entirely likely that we might see some big Ukraine announcements there,” Klain told HuffPost.