From the contingency budget to the scrapping of the promised $1000 rebate, here is how the budget impacts you
The B.C. NDP’s 2025 budget is projecting a record $10.9 billion deficit in 2025 and a near-doubling of taxpayer supported debt over the next three years as the province faces 25 per cent U.S. tariffs on most Canadian products.
In the midst of that, a modest $5.7 billion increase in spending over the course of the plan is primarily concentrated in health care, the hiring of new teachers to support the K-12 system and a new ICBC rebate of $110 for most plan-holders.
As expected, the NDP’s promised grocery rebate was nowhere to be found, with the government announcing it could no longer afford the expense given the threat of tariffs.
The Ministry of Finance has also set aside $12 billion in contingencies over the next three years to prepare for the economic disruption tariffs will bring.
Finance Minister Brenda Bailey said the budget is focused on strengthening and growing the economy through the acceleration of natural resource projects and $16 billion in infrastructure projects over the course of the current fiscal plan.
“It is true this is not a budget that has splashy announcements,” she said. “This is about us really focusing our spending and protecting core services for British Columbians.”
Here are five ways B.C.’s 2025 budget may affect you.
Tariff impacts on economic outlook
Economic forecasters predict the imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian exports to the U.S., outside of energy which will be taxed at 10 per cent, could lead to 45,000 fewer jobs in B.C. by 2029 and increase the provincial unemployment rate from an average of 5.6 per cent in 2024 to 6.4 per cent in 2025 and 6.7 per cent in 2026.
B.C.’s real GDP could also lose as much as $43 billion between now and 2029, the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s four-year term, and corporate profits could drop annually by between $3.2 billion to $5 billion.
The province’s coffers are also expected to take a hit of between $1.7 billion and $3.4 billion in each of the next three years, although that amount wasn’t included in the Ministry of Finance’s baseline revenue projection.
That projection predicts government revenue will increase from $82.8 billion this year to $88.1 billion during the 2027-28 fiscal year.
As devastating as these projections are, Bailey pointed out they are actually better than the initial scenario she outlined on Jan. 16, which estimated the province could lose 124,000 jobs and have $69 billion shaved off its GDP.
“I want to be very clear that these tariffs, along with other changes in the economy, were already impacting our economic and revenue forecasts,” she said.
“It is also important to note that the impacts to B.C.’s economy may actually be beyond the range shown here if federal support measures are less than projected, if Canada’s retaliation escalates or if the level of U.S. tariffs are higher due to stacking.”
Trump has already promised to stack the 25 per cent tariff on top of tariffs he has already applied to imports of steel, aluminum and forest products.
No new money for treatment and recovery
A major promise of the NDP in the lead-up to October’s provincial election was a promise to expand involuntary care for people with severe mental health and addictions issues, but it was unclear in the budget how much is being allocated for those services.
This includes the establishment of treatment services at the Surrey pretrial jail and the Alouette jail.
There was $500 million set aside for treatment and recovery but the budget was unclear whether is simply meant to stabilize funding for services already being offered rather than to pay for any expansions of what is being offered.
Bailey deflected questions about this, referring to her technical team and saying the Ministry of Health is so large that it is sometimes hard to sort out how individual programs are being funded.
“I think what’s really important to understand is that there’s a lot of money that’s already in play to build out treatment and recovery,” she said. “We have new spaces opening up regularly. There was a billion dollar investment in 2023 and there’s $500 million added to that.”
Carbon tax uncertainty continues
One question Premier David Eby has repeatedly been asked in recent weeks is whether the province will keep its promise to eliminate the provincial carbon tax on consumers if the federal government removes its backstop.
The tax is scheduled to be increased by another $15 per tonne on April 1.
For now, the province is moving forward as if the revenue from the tax will keep flowing, despite the top two candidates for the federal Liberal leadership, Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, both promising to scrap the tax.
If the government were to get rid of the tax it would blow a hole in the provincial budget of just over $3 billion this year, just over $1 billion of which is returned to British Columbians through the climate action tax credit.
Bailey said the province will have to wait to see what Ottawa does but reiterated the NDP’s commitment they will scrap the tax if the federal government removes the federal requirements.
She also refused to say whether the loss of revenue from the carbon tax would have any impact on programs such as CleanBC, including rebates for heat pumps and electric cars.
Strong ICBC revenues lead to another rebate
British Columbians can expect another bump in their accounts this April as the province raids ICBC’s coffers to the tune of $410 million. This will allow them to provide all 3.7 million ratepayers with a rebate of $110.
This the fifth such rebate since the Crown insurance provider moved to a no-fault insurance model. The corporation brought in $1.4 billion in revenue this year.
Insurance rates are also going to remain steady through March 31, 2026, a promise the NDP made during the provincial election campaign.
Promises on education partly kept, while health care gets boost
In October, the NDP promised to fund psychologists for every school in the province and educational assistants for every classroom from Kindergarten through Grade 3.
Tuesday’s budget got them part of the way there with $370 million allocated over three years for K-12 schools, which includes money for the fund that helps districts hire psychologists and special education teachers.
Health care, got a sizable boost with $4.2 billion in additional funds over three years, including $870 million for capital projects such as the construction of the new St. Paul’s Hospital in Vancouver and redevelopments of Royal Columbian Hospital in New Westminster, Royal Inland Hospital in Kamloops and Mills Memorial Hospital in Terrace.