The Canucks find themselves in a 1 v 1 sled race to the playoff finish line vs. the Calgary Flames.
But going into Thursday’s game in Anaheim, their position had become a lot weaker.
That is not exactly a strong position.
So let’s dig into how the final six-plus weeks of the season look to truly understand the state of this playoff chase.
50/50
First of all, let’s consider probability.
As of Thursday afternoon, Moneypuck.com projected the Canucks as having a 44.5 per cent chance to make the playoffs, a real drop from last week. Bulsink Bot, another projection model I look at, has them at 55 per cent. HockeyViz’s model is more bullish, at 59.8 per cent.
In other words, it’s a coin toss.
That’s … not inspiring.
Now, history shows that 75 per cent of the teams in a playoff spot at American Thanksgiving make the playoffs. The Canucks were in a playoff spot at that point.
But we know what we know — the season has gone badly since then. Indeed, it was going badly even before then, but the way December and then January went, maybe it was a surprise they were an 80 to 75 per cent playoff favourite a week ago, as they were.
But back-to-back losses to the Vegas Golden Knights, who are surely going to make the playoffs, and the Utah Hockey Club, who are chasing the Canucks, did make a dent in those chances.
The Flames beating the San Jose Sharks and Washington Capitals in the same stretch upped their chances and hurt the Canucks.
And so the Canucks find themselves back in a dog fight.
.555
The Canucks’ opposition from here on are carrying a .511 points percentage.
So really, it’s an even course ahead.
2
Here’s a different way to understand the even course ahead: The Canucks play the Jets, Golden Knights, Stars and Wild twice in their remaining games.
The Flames face just two teams twice from here on out: the Stars and Golden Knights.
On the other hand, the Canucks play the Ducks twice more after Thursday. They also have a pair of games against the Kraken.
The Flames face the Ducks and Sharks twice.
6
There’s a six-point difference between Kevin Lankinen’s save percentage so far this season and that of Calgary’s No. 1 goalie, Dustin Wolf.
Lankinen has saved 90.7 per cent of the shots he’s faced. Wolf has stopped 91.3 per cent.
Again, a marginal difference, but it’s still — over the remainder of the season — a four-goal difference or so.
That’s a full win, give or take.
Shooting ability matters more than goaltending ability at this point, but there’s still a margin here that could matter.
10
Here’s some final food for thought: It took all of 10 seconds from the Canucks winning the faceoff to Nils Höglander potting the game-opening goal Wednesday in L.A.
The Canucks have spoken a lot about playing faster, about being better on the rush, about attacking the middle of the ice as they gain the zone.
The whole sequence was a case in point. Goals happen quickly, not after long build ups.
The Canucks have been good at retaining possession this season, but that’s just proof they have been hesitant to shoot.
They still only mustered 17 shots on the night against the Kings, but the Höglander goal in particular was a lesson in how playing fast leads to good things.