Edmonton exports approximately $14 billion in goods to the U.S. annually, accounting for 9.7 per cent of the city’s GDP.
Edmonton city council received an intergovernmental update Tuesday on the economic risks and mitigation strategies surrounding tariffs, as the city and its business partners continue to assess potential impacts on local industries, businesses and municipal operations.
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Statistics from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce indicate that Edmonton’s projected exposure to tariffs is lower than many other major cities, including Calgary. According to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s tariff exposure Index, Edmonton ranks 24th out of 41 Canadian cities in terms of vulnerability to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, reflecting a moderate level of exposure. Edmonton exports approximately $14 billion in goods to the U.S. annually, accounting for 9.7 per cent of the region’s GDP.
While the city’s lower U.S. export intensity and overall export dependency compared to other urban centres contribute to its relative resilience, ripple effects could still disrupt businesses and the local economy. The Edmonton Chamber of Commerce noted key limitations to the index, including many companies headquartered in Calgary have significant operations in the Edmonton region, meaning economic consequences will be felt locally even if they are financially registered elsewhere.
Additionally, the analysis focuses on the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area as a whole, meaning direct tariff exposure within the city may be understated. While most oil and gas production occurs outside the city, many Edmonton-based companies provide critical support services to the industry and will be heavily affected if production slows down.
Meanwhile, Edmonton’s 2024 Business Census, which surveyed more than 17,500 businesses, roughly three-fifths of the city’s total and excluded home-based businesses, offers an early snapshot of local industry trends. Nearly 12 per cent of Edmonton businesses export goods internationally, with the highest export activity in transportation, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade sectors. While the exact share destined for the U.S. is unclear, Alberta’s heavy reliance on the American market, accounting for 90 per cent of exports, primarily in oil and gas, suggests significant tariff exposure.
Many Edmonton businesses support the oil and gas supply chain, providing equipment, maintenance and services to major refineries. Shutdowns can impact hundreds of workers, and many Edmontonians commute for oil and gas jobs. While Edmonton appears resilient, it remains vulnerable to trade disruptions.
The Edmonton region could also face significant economic headwinds if proposed tariffs are implemented, according to projections by Edmonton Global, based on the Conference Board of Canada and the Bank of Canada. Forecasts indicate that the prolonged tariffs may lead to a structural weakening of the economy, potentially pushing GDP growth below two per cent, which is a threshold that signals recessionary conditions.
From 2026 to 2028, Edmonton is expected to have the top-performing economy in Canada. However, projections show that tariffs could negatively impact this growth trajectory, creating long-term economic challenges.
Despite the risks, business leaders in the region are exploring opportunities to mitigate the impact. Canada’s extensive network of free trade agreements, covering 54 countries compared to the U.S.’s 20 countries, presents potential avenues for diversification. One key area of focus is replacing certain export markets in international markets that are severely exposed to tariffs, such as Vietnam as this country faces significant exposure to U.S. tariffs, at a rate of 758 times compared to Canada’s 16. Edmonton-based industries, particularly in starches and petroleum products, could position themselves as alternative suppliers for affected markets.
Political leaders and business partners are actively working together to align economic strategies to counteract potential negative effects of tariffs. Initiatives such as the Buy Edmonton campaign aim to promote local businesses, while advocacy efforts seek to reduce interprovincial trade barriers. The city is also closely monitoring direct business impacts and adjusting economic messaging to reassure residents and businesses. With strategic planning and co-ordinated efforts between local government, businesses and economic agencies, Edmonton aims to maintain stability amid evolving trade uncertainties.
Ward Dene Coun. Aaron Paquette said that Edmonton’s response to tariffs shouldn’t be purely reactive but strategic for long-term economic strength.
“We can use this moment to rethink how we do business, where we invest, and how we define our role in what is very obviously a shifting global economy and shifting global political situation,” Paquette said. “The real question isn’t just how do we manage tariffs. It’s how do we turn this into an opportunity that sets Edmonton up for the next decade.”