OPINION
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage at his party conference in Cornwall earlier this week (Image: PA)
Reform UK has golden opportunity to win my generation
We all know latest opinion polling has ‘s Reform UK leading other major parties.
For example, in the recent poll by Techne, Reform leads with 26% versus Labour on 25% and the on 22.
If such results were replicated in a general election Reform would be the biggest party with 199 MPs in the House of Commons, against Labour with 183 and the with 145.
Reform and the would then have the numbers combined to enter into a coalition government, presumably with Farage as PM.
But Reform presumably wants an outright majority rather than relying upon the , albeit as a junior partner.
To that end it is noteworthy that Reform is mostly winning over voters aged 45 and over, rather than Millennials and Gen Z.
In the 45-54 age range – for example – Reform polls 25% versus Labour on 24% and the on 22%. A lead but hardly a commanding one.
However, among voters aged 55-64, Reform does better, polling on 29%, with Labour and the on 23% each.
This lead climbs further among the 65+ group, with Reform on 32% versus the on 26% and Labour on a measly 18%.
Why does this matter? Well, the kind of numbers polled for voters 55 and above – if reflected in opinion polls – would see Reform get closer to a coveted overall majority.
Reform therefore needs to grow its existing support among middle aged voters, and increase it among the young, among which it is still polling below Labour.
Among voters 35-44, for example, Labour leads comfortably on 29%, with the and Reform both on 21%.
Among those aged 18 to 34, Labour’s lead jumps to 36%, with Reform on 20%, and the on a mere 17%.
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Frankly, the fact Reform is doing better than the among the youngest cohort is fantastic news for Farage, demonstrating Reform’s social media outreach is working while Gen Z may indeed be shifting to the Right as many commentators report.
That said, if Reform really wants to grow its support, its policies need to target younger voters let down by the traditional parties.
Even though older people vote in larger numbers, it would be risky to rely solely upon such voters, especially given the distribution of votes needed to secure the maximum number of parliamentarians.
Outreach to younger voters does not necessitate a softening of Reform’s immigration and economic policies – which clearly win over older voters – especially since young men appear fertile ground for the party.
But it means policies targeting wages, home ownership, and family formation, as well as emphasising the impact migration has on wages and pressuring housing demand.
The made the mistake of trying to be all things to all men, and this is a misstep Farage is unlikely to make. A certain section of the population will never put an X next to Reform.
But there clearly are younger voters – especially young men like me – who would be enormously receptive to the party’s message.
Reform would be well advised not to water down its core ideology but to articulate why that ideology should appeal to voters trying to build incomes, buy homes, and start families.