Starmer can achieve much in his meeting with Trump, if he keeps a cool head

Keir Starmer’s decision to increase the UK’s defence budget places him in a trigger position for his meeting with on Thursday.

But he will need to keep a cool head to navigate some choppy waters.

Today’s announcement will see the UK increase defence spending to 2.7​% by 2027, with a trajectory of hitting 3% of GDP by the end of the decade.

Considering the looming prospect of Europe having to manage its own defence without US support as it enters a Cold War proper with , it is certainly not enough. With inflationary winds blowing in the right direction, it might provide a £14bn boost. This is put not dark context by the MoDs existing £17bn black hole over the next ten years.

A Cold War requires Cold War budgets, and that begins at 5%.

But it may well assuage the transactionalist US president – an anglophile who has said he wishes the relationship with the UK to go from ‘strength to strength – by offering him something tangible to take home to his base.

For the PM, it is a good beginning to restoring the UK’s pre- position as a bridge to a Europe which is, rightly, feeling increasingly abandoned by Washington DC.

The fact that he has had to finance the increase by reducing foreign aid also won’t bother Trump, who himself has ordered a mass reaction in US aid.

Critics have bemoaned the reduction in the UK’s soft power at a time when China’s influence remains strong in the Global South.

But the reality is that the UK has begun to use trade, not aid, to try to counterbalance Beijing’s influence in that Continent.

A high profile visit by Africa minster Lord Collins of Highbury to Ghana and Senegal last year, intended to bolster partnerships for growth in clean energy, food security and women’s empowerment, was the begging to what the Labour Government termed “ a decade of british neglect”.

And the brutal truth is that soft power must now take a back seat to hard power.​ We simply cannot afford both.

As Ed Arnold of RUSI think tank ​put it recently. the EU’s combined GDP of approximately £13.5 trillion far exceeded ’s ​£3.5 trillion.

However, while the EU also spends more on defence and has more active military personnel, when adjusted for purchasing power parity, is now spending more on defence than European countries combined. If Trump readmits to the G8 and lifts sanctions, its growing economy will speed up Russian rearmament and directly threaten Nato.

Thursday’s meeting at the Oval Office won’t be plain sailing, however.

Starmer will have to sidestep calls from the US President to chime with the Russians narrative over , while appealing to Trump’s ego.

During their last meeting, Trump was granted permission to address Parliament during his next visit, and secured the attendance of the Prince and Princess of Wales at a State dinner at the White House.

Trump was given the singular honour of two State Visits by the Conservative governments when he was last president.

It may be time to extend another such invitation, which would include a meeting with , of whom the US President spoke so fondly during their meeting in December.

Gently pointing out that that Trump’s reputation might suffer act if he allows himself to be played by might hit home.

A better bet might be to remind Trump that it was the UK who pushed for the invocation of Article V – the first and only time in the Alliance’s history – following the 9/11 attacks on Trump’ home city, and that engagement in the subsequent war on terror in Afghanistan cost the UK the lives of 457 British soldiers and almost £40 billion.

And while Britain’s deck of cards is small, there are a few cards still to play.

Both Trump and Starmer are keen to engage in a Free Trade Agreement, and Starmer may be forced to temporarily park his EU reset ambitions if he wants to straddle the line between Continental USA and Continental EU.

Britain’s influence in the Arctic is one area where both US and British interests still align, due to an increasing threat by China.

And then there is the controversial Chagos deal, pegged to cost the Treasury an event £9 billion-£18 billion, depending whether you believe Mauritius’ new President Pradeep Roopun or not.

As Dr Daffyd Townley, of Portsmouth University put it last night: “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chagos deal, which is vehemently opposed by Trump, suddenly appeared on the schedule on Thursday, and Starmer might well decide to bench it.

“But if this happens, it won’t be announced straight away to avoid the prospect of Starmer being accused of trying out a knee-jerk reaction to appease the US.”

Starmer has an opportunity on Thursday o make real advances in he US-UK relationship whilst remains firm on his commitment to .

But he will need to keep a cool head.