Sir Keir Starmer’s new defence spending pledge has started to unravel – just three hours after he made the announcement in the Commons.
The Prime Minister informed the country on Tuesday that the UK will hit 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2027 – much earlier than previously planned.
He also committed to hitting 3% in the next Parliament, after the general election expected in 2029.
Sir Keir told the Commons: “Let me spell that out. [This] means spending £13.4billion more on defence every year from 2027.”
However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said this figure was highly misleading and accused the PM of inventing a much higher number to impress US president .
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Sir Keir Starmer’s claims in the Commons are being questioned (Image: Parliament)
Senior research economist Ben Zaranko said the increase to 2.5% of GDP would mean a sum of far less than £13.4billion.
He told Times Radio: “The Prime Minister has said defence spending will go from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP, so an extra 0.2%. He said to pay for that, aid spending will go from 0.5% to 0.3%, so -0.2% of GDP. So far, so good.
“The reason why he’s run into trouble is he’s doing what politicians always do, which is when they’re announcing something they reach for the largest possible number.
“In this case, that’s £13billion, a number which makes sense as far as I can tell, only if you think that otherwise defence spending would have been frozen in cash terms and would have been declining as a share of GDP.
“So he’s reaching for a bigger number to make his announcement, perhaps one aimed at the US president, sound more dramatic, but I think that he’s come unstuck by using numbers which don’t quite cohere across the board.”
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Downing Street is refusing to answer questions whether the Chagos Island handover counts towards the defence spending (Image: Getty)
The 0.2% reduction in foreign aid and 0.2% rise in defence spending, is about £6billion extra a year compared to what would have otherwise been spent had the defence budget remained at its 2.3% of GDP level.
This is a £7.4billion smaller increase than Sir Keir told MPs would be coming.
However, the Prime Minister is also facing questions about whether his planned handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius will be used to artificially boost Britain’s spending on defence without providing any increased security.
The Government has come under huge fire for its plan to give the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius and lease the US-UK military base back over the next 100 years for a huge sum.
While the Government has yet to reveal the total amount it has offered to Mauritius, it is claimed to be anywhere between £9-£18billion in upfront costs.
Amid concerns the Government might count this sum towards its total defence spending, a Downing Street source refused to “get into Chagos” when questioned by the Express.
Shadow armed forces minister Mark Francois has demanded reassurance that none of the defence spending uplift “is linked to payments for a Chagos deal, which, if it’s heavily front-loaded, could eat up a significant chunk of that, at least in the early years”.
The Prime Minister will deliver a statement from Downing Street at 5pm this afternoon.