OPINION
Alice Weidel, co-leader of the Alternative for Germany Party which came second (Image: AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
After years of a so-called ‘traffic light’ coalition led by the Social Democrats (SDP), the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party – the Christian Social Union (CSU) – came first.
More strikingly, the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second. At first glance, this election then looks like a major victory for conservative forces, in line with November’s Trump victory Stateside and Reform UK’s surge in UK opinion polls – a pan-Western rightwards shift.
Not so fast! For starters, the likely next German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has made it clear he will not work with the AfD, maintaining a so-called ‘firewall’ around the hard-right party given sensitivities over Germany’s Nazi past.
This sets the scene for a lockout, with Merz likely having to devise a grand coalition with the unpopular SDP, a party attacked for infighting with coalition partners, as well as its track record on immigration and nuclear energy, both issues Merz has promised to fix.
If the firewall is maintained, expect an explosion in protests as many Germans will be outraged that the second most popular party is locked out of coalition, even if the AfD narrowly failed to win a symbolic 20 per cent of the vote.
This sets the scene for ongoing political instability (the last thing either Germany or the EU need) and may in fact increase support for the AfD as well as other right-wing forces across the EU, such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party in France, as she polls first ahead of a future presidential election.
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Still, if Merz makes good on his promise to get tough on illegal migration, this could catalyse greater illegal migrant movement towards the UK as migrants view Labour Britain as a comparative soft touch.
Will that help Reform UK’s opinion poll ratings? Quite possibly. Again, another example of how election results in the EU’s largest economy are likely to have spillover effects across the Continent.
Still, assuming the SDP remains in government, it could all be business as usual, despite promises over migration, energy and defence. Will that make the AfD even more attractive or will Merz surprise his critics?
EU eyes will now be on Germany as months of likely coalition building get underway.