A chilling video shows what might happen if an asteroid hits Earth in 2032, as scientists fear. Disc (Image: MetaBallStudios / SWNS)
A massive asteroid being monitored by and other space agencies could strike anywhere along a narrow “” which is home to 110m million people, latest calculations have indicated.
On Wednesday, NASA cut the probability of asteroid striking Earth in 2032, although scientists still warn the threat is still the highest ever recorded for an object of its size, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters, big enough to be dubbed a “city killer”.
After a week of limited visibility due to a full moon, astronomers have resumed observing the space rock, using ground-based telescopes to refine its projected trajectory.
Fresh data gathered halved the impact probability from 3.1% to 1.5%, offering some relief – but still leaving open the possibility of a catastrophic collision.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), based at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, is tracking 2024 YR4 closely.
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The video shows the estimated impact risk corridor of the asteroid hitting Earth. A chilling video (Image: MetaBallStudios / SWNS)
Data suggests the asteroid could impact anywhere along a narrow corridor stretching from South America across the Atlantic to Africa and South Asia.
Major cities such as Bogota, Lagos, Mumbai, and Chennai – home to an estimated 110 million people – lie in the potential impact zone. A map of the region has been produced by the Weather Network, based on NASA’s data.
However, Earth is not the only target. There is also a 0.8% chance that 2024 YR4 could strike the Moon, an outcome scientists say is far less concerning but still noteworthy.
NASA released new graphics showing how the region of potential impact locations is shrinking as more data comes in. Each night of observation improves our understanding of where the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032.
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This handout picture provided by NASA on January 31, 2025 shows asteroid 2024 YR4 (Image: NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telesc)
Earth would need to fall outside the asteroid’s projected path for the impact probability to drop to zero. Until then, planetary defence experts cannot rule out a collision.
NASA is preparing for its Near-Earth Object Surveyor (NEO Surveyor) mission, set to launch no earlier than September 2027. This space telescope will hunt for asteroids in infrared, spotting them long before they become a threat.
But if 2024 YR4 is confirmed on a collision course, deflection efforts would need to start years in advance.
The DART mission successfully changed the trajectory of an asteroid in 2022, proving that planetary defence is possible – but it remains to be seen whether such a strategy could be scaled up for a rock of this size.
New observations of 2024 YR4 have enabled planetary defense experts to refine the asteroid’s chance of impact in 2032. As nightly observations continue, the impact probability will continue to be updated.Learn more:
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch)
Meanwhile, the watch continues, with more observations expected in the coming weeks. Scientists stress that while the risk is low, 2024 YR4 is a reminder that Earth is not immune to asteroid impacts – and that the next one could arrive with little warning.
Speaking to CNN, Dr Paul Chodas, manager for the Center for Near Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, said: “If the asteroid turns out to be on the large end of its estimated size range, the impact could produce blast damage as far as 50 kilometres (31 miles) from the impact site.
“But that’s in the unlikely event that it might impact at all.
“The potential for damage arises because of the incredibly high speed (about 17 kilometres per second, or 38,028 miles per hour) at which the asteroid would enter the atmosphere.”