Trump administration is moving full speed ahead on rescinding California’s waiver to create its own electric-vehicle mandate
The future of EVs in North America is now officially under threat. As Motor Mouth has long predicted, the Trump administration is moving to overturn California’s waiver to create its own EV mandates. Indeed, the only thing we didn’t expect is how quickly the new president has launched his assault on the Golden State’s Clean Air Act waivers.
For those that need reminding, the environment is, in America, a federal jurisdiction. The only reason California has been able to set its own emissions standards since 1967 are waivers granted by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Fulfilling a promise to revoke those waivers, Trump — or, more accurately, his EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin — has sent three of those waivers (Advanced Clean Cars II; Advanced Clean Trucks; and Omnibus NOx rules) to the House of Representatives for congressional review. As per its rules, Congress then has 60 days to “review” the rules — and I am putting review in quotes, because it’s highly unlikely any actual reviewing will be conducted — and potentially revoke the waivers.
More ominously, as per the Congressional Review Act, should Congress indeed invalidate California’s waivers, no agency would be allowed to establish the same — or even a similar rule — without congressional approval. In effect, if Trump wins this vote, reviving the Clean Air Act — and California’s right to enforce its EV mandate — would require congress to pass legislation approving the waivers, which, short of some future Democratic “super-”majority of all three wings of the American administration sometime, is extremely unlikely. In simpler terms, if Trump gets these “reviews” through congress, the likelihood of California ever being allowed to have a state EV mandate would seem very remote indeed.
And even Quebec’s politico have admitted that that province’s EV mandate — which, in its original form, was largely a copy of California’s rules, translated into French — would require significant changes if the California mandate is revoked. It is not an exaggeration by any means to state that California’s emissions rules — and the waiver that allows them — is the linchpin for all of North America’s EV mandates.
Two important points stand out in this existential battle for the future of battery power. The first is that, according to numerous sources, Trump’s ability to backdoor this review of the waivers is the result of a Biden administration oversight. It seems — and this is me parroting other sources, since I am not, by any means, a legal beagle specializing in the workings of the American Congress — that the Congressional Review Act requires that any time such major waivers are re-upped, the agency must send the bill to congress for review within 60 days of the rules going into effect.
They did not and, if these sources are indeed correct, the 60-day clock can therefore be restarted all over. “The Biden administration failed to send rules on California’s waivers to Congress, preventing members of Congress from deciding on extremely consequential actions that have massive impacts and costs across the entire United States,” said Zeldin, further noting that “the Trump EPA is transparently correcting this wrong and rightly following the rule of law.” Like all things legal, the devil would appear to be in the details.
It is not an exaggeration to state California’s emissions rules is the linchpin for all of North America’s EV mandates
The second noteworthy aspect of this “review” is how total Trump must think his control of the Grand Old Party is. It’s no mystery the Republicans have but a three-vote majority in the House of Representatives. If two Republicans vote against the measure, that would mean the waivers would stand, and, though California be the most progressive of states, nine of its representatives are Republican.
That said, most of California’s Republicans represent rural districts and are very concerned with California’s plan to reduce long-haul-truck nitrogen-oxide (NOx) emissions some 90%. More specifically, they’re worried what the added expense of meeting these clean-air regs might do to California’s expansive agricultural industry (which grows one-third of the country’s vegetables and three-quarters of its fruits and nuts).
Indeed, it is a measure of this Trump administration’s sophistication compared with his first chaotic regime that this review includes commercial trucks. It would seem the real vote-getter for the state’s GOPers whose districts are largely rural. More importantly, according to insiders, Trump has got the votes he needs in the House and the Senate.
The bottom line is that California’s right to enact its own EV mandates is under greater threat than ever before. And, as the Golden State goes, so too will numerous American states see their EV mandates revoked. Along with the EPA’s rollback of tailpipe-emissions standards, this would cause a major upheaval for all automakers. For we Canadians, it would mean either harmonizing our regulations with the new American reality, or going our own way. Considering the complication of the latter, we should look to Canada once again to follow the American lead.
Yes, even if that lead is Donald Trump.
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