Donald Trump, right, chats with Chinese President Xi Jinping during trip to China in 2017 (Image: AP)
’s status has “never looked more unstable”, a stark new report has warned – sparking fears that ’s return to the White House could trigger a chain of events which plunges the world into a crisis.
The report, published by the Lau Institute and the Policy Institute at King’s College London, highlights the volatile mix of an unpredictable Trump presidency, China’s hardline nationalist leadership, and Taiwan’s pro-independence government – a combination it brands as an unprecedented threat to global security.
Analysts warn that the shifting military balance between the US and China is tipping dangerously with the consequent risk of a “devastating” war centred on the disputed island.
Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute, warned: “Trump’s latest round of tariffs aimed at China, this time on its steel industry – which is largely state-run in the People’s Republic, are yet another indication that we look likely to be heading into a second trade war.
“Whether this is a strategic move by the Trump administration to garner a new deal with China or game playing is yet to be seen.
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Taiwanese soldiers taking part in military drills (Image: Getty)
“What is clear is that the continued uncertainty of America’s relationship with China is a concern for us all, and in this game, there are few more dangerous bargaining chips than the status on Taiwan and the ways this might figure either side as something to throw into this terrifying mix.”
While Washington’s official defence budget stands at a staggering £633billion ($800billion), Beijing’s real military spend – once adjusted for purchasing power parity – stands at a hefty £421billion ($541billion), the report said.
Coupled with escalating tensions in the , the report paints a grim picture of what could become a flashpoint for global conflict, warning: “A war across the Strait would be devastating.”
Despite Trump’s reputation as a leader who loathes costly wars, the report warns, and his transactional nature could put Taiwan in the firing line.
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Donald Trump was elected to a second, non-consecutive term as US President in November (Image: Getty)
If Beijing and Washington cut an economic deal, it remains unlikely the US would abandon its long-held policy of “strategic ambiguity” – neither committing to defend Taiwan nor ruling it out – but the possibility cannot be dismissed.
Mr Trump’s push for a more aggressive economic relationship with China could, in theory, lead to a more stable situation, the paper concedes. It suggests he might even help boost China’s domestic consumption, a long-standing Achilles’ heel of its economy. However, any breakthrough remains extremely uncertain.
The report argues that China, despite its turbulent history with the US, may be better placed than most to handle Trump’s return.
Beijing is expected to favour Mr Trump’s hard-nosed deal-making over what it regards as sanctimonious lectures on human rights delivered by other US administrations.
It also issues a chilling warning about China’s surging technological prowess, pointing to the success of as a “wake-up call” for the West.
The report’s other key findings suggest:
- China’s research dominance is surging, with its institutions now holding seven of the top 10 global positions in natural and health sciences
- US-China trade remains strong despite tensions, with Chinese exports to the US hitting $48.8billion in December 2024 – a massive 35.6% rise on the previous year