Nigel Farage will be praying that biggest risk doesn’t become reality for Reform UK

Nigel Farage’s star continues to rise with new opinion polls confirming a recent Sky/YouGov poll which had Reform UK ahead of the and Labour.

A Techne UK poll for the Independent found that one third of Tory voters are switching to Reform, with Reform now joint top with Labour on 25% versus 23% for the .

Another poll – this time by FindOutNow – had Reform on 29%, versus 25% for Labour and a mere 18% for the .

This comes as a split appeared to emerge in Tory ranks, with former leadership contender Robert Jenrick refusing to rule out a deal with Reform, something a spokesperson for under-fire leader, Kemi Badenoch, did.

Perhaps Farage’s greatest risk now is not the cancelling of local elections — this may hurt Reform’s local chances but gives Farage a chance to grab the limelight and shine a light on Labour failings — but the risk that Badenoch is imminently dumped as party leader.

Not that Jenrick and co look like great alternatives but, right now, anything might be better than this.

In the meantime, Reform UK is surging and — on YouGov numbers at least — would be the largest party in the Commons, likely governing as the senior partner in coalition with the .

But 2029 – the almost certain time of the next election — is a long way from now, and much could change.

Badenoch could be gone, the could turn the tide, and even Labour could make a decent go of it. Heck, World War 3 could be underway.

But, for now at least, Reform is rising, and its surge is going nowhere.