Astronomers’ predictions as chance of asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 just got higher

Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has calculated a 2.3% chance—roughly a 1-in-43 probability—that asteroid 2024 YR4 could impact Earth in 2032. While the number may sound alarming, astronomers emphasise that further observations will likely refine the asteroid’s trajectory and reduce any potential risk.

Just a week ago, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimated a lower probability—1.3%—of impact on December 22, 2032, the date when 2024 YR4 will make its closest approach to our planet. That means, statistically, it still has a 98–99% chance of passing Earth harmlessly.

The asteroid, first detected by in Chile just before the new year, is estimated to measure up to 300 feet (90 meters) in diameter.

This makes it similar in size to the object that caused the infamous 1908 Tunguska event, where an explosion over a remote region of Siberia flattened 830 square miles (2,150 square km) of forest.

It is, however, important to note that such events are extremely rare, and even an impact of this scale would likely cause regional rather than .

Despite its high placement on official asteroid risk lists in the US and Europe, 2024 YR4 has only been assigned a 3 on the . This system ranks asteroid threats from 0 (no risk) to 10 (catastrophic global event). A rating of 3 indicates a “close encounter” that merits continued observation but is not yet considered a severe threat.

ESA’s experts explain that as more precise tracking data is gathered, the likelihood of impact usually decreases. A video released by the agency, How Asteroids Go from Threat to No Sweat, highlights how new calculations often shift asteroids from potential hazards to negligible risks.

NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office echoes this sentiment. “There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,” said researcher Molly Wasser. She noted that additional observations in the coming months will likely refine the asteroid’s trajectory and downgrade its threat level.

Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, also reassured the public: “Most likely, this one will pass by harmlessly. It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that.”

Asteroids with initially worrying predictions have been reclassified as non-threats before. One notable example is 99942 Apophis, a 1,100-foot (340-meter) asteroid that was once given a rating of 4 on the Torino Scale after its 2004 discovery. Initial calculations suggested it could impact Earth in 2029 or 2036. However, after years of tracking, scientists ruled out any risk of collision for at least the next century.

Even in the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 remains a high-risk object, planetary defence experts have reason for optimism.

mission in 2022 proved that humanity has the capability to alter an asteroid’s trajectory. The mission successfully redirected the asteroid Dimorphos, which was about the size of a football stadium, by crashing a spacecraft into it—confirming that a similar strategy could be employed against future threats.

“This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like DART could be effective if required, so we have the technology, and it has been tested,” Prof Snodgrass affirmed.

For now, astronomers will continue tracking 2024 YR4 and collecting more data. The public can expect further updates in the coming months as experts refine their calculations—likely reducing the asteroid’s already small chance of impact even further.