PM Keir Starmer is determined to sign Chagos deal despite security concerns (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Keir Starmer’s planned Chagos deal will help China expand its stranglehold over international trade routes and affect the global economy by threatening Western shipping, a damning new report has warned.
Beijing would begin by using spy ships posing as fishing vessels to eavesdrop on the crucial US-UK military base on Diego Garcia, before installing disguised military instillations on adjoining islands to hamper its effectiveness.
Crucially, there is also a real possibility that the agreement will alter the balance of power in Mauritius itself to favour Beijing, putting into question the validity of any conditions secured by the UK..
Officials in Mauritius now say they are “optimistic” that the controversial deal will be signed on March 12- Mauritius Independence Day – following a “cordial” conversation between the PM and and his Mauritian counterpart Navin Ramgoolam last week.
But its spectre has caused alarm bells in Washington DC, with President fearful that it will allow China to increase its military leverage in the area.
If passed, the deal would involve the base on Diego Garcia being leased to Britain for 99 years at a reported cost of £9 billion to maintain a UK and US military presence.
Last night, a damning report by the Council on Geostrategy think tank laid out in chilling detail the full scale of the Chinese threat.
“In this era of a deteriorating world order, control of maritime trade routes and strategic waterways has become a focal point of competition and the Indian Ocean is at the heart of this shift,’ said regional expert Jennifer Parker, of Australian National University’s National Security College.
“This centres on control of sea lanes, which handle two-thirds of global oil shipments and one-third of bulk cargo.”
China has invested heavily in ports and airports across the region, includes over £1.2 million in Chinese foreign direct investment in Mauritius in 2022 alone, she said, as well as a a 20-year loan for the construction of Mauritius International Airport.
She added: “While Mauritius appears more closely aligned with India, which would oppose Chinese access due to its own strategic interests, a shift in the balance of power resulting from the UK’s handover could create an opportunity for greater Chinese influence. “
The danger of that shift, experts warn, is that China does not recognise the validity of inconvenient international agreements. This was demonstrated by the way Beijing violated the Sino-British joint declaration on Hong Kong by mercilessly prosecuting pro-democracy campaigners.
An aerial view of Diego Garcia. (Image: (U.S. Navy via AP))
China’s Maritime militia and fishing bats will spy on the base (Image: AFP)
British Chagossians say the deal will not address their grievances (Image: Getty Images)
Once Mauritius is turned politically, we should expect swift action from Beijing,, warned Peter Dutton Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Centre.
Diego Garcia is “a vital geographic bulwark against the decline of global order. To leave a power vacuum for Beijing to fill -even by abandoning the Chagos Islands other than Diego Garcia – would seriously weaken Britain and America’s capacity to employ the power necessary to keep order in the region in accordance with international law, and to support allies and friends such as Australia, India, Malaysia, and Singapore“ he said
And China would begin by using the pretext of fishing rights offered by Mauritius.
“For decades, China has used fishing ships as an extension of its military,” warned Grant Rafferty, Parliamentary Researcher at the House of Commons.
“Known as the Maritime Militia, their role has only expanded as Beijing has pursued aggressive operations around the South China Sea.”
He added: “The ships operate as commercial fisheries -providing plausible deniability – but double up as mini spy ships providing vast amounts of data to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from the location of submarines to the activities at ports.”
Should China be granted access to develop the other islands economically, we could see “innocuous infrastructure to be built packed with military surveillance equipment aimed directly at the base”, he warned.
In 2018 it emerged that confidential data on the IT network of the Chinese-built African Union headquarters in Ethiopia had been being siphoned off to Shanghai for more than six years.
justifies his dogged determination to secure a deal over Chagos by pointing to a 2019 ruling by the International Court of Justice, which viewed the expulsion of Chagossians from the islands by the UK in 1968 as ilegal, and called for its decolonisation.
But the ruling was non-binding, and while the Conservative Government began negotiations with Mauritius, they were soon abandoned over security threats.
And handing sovereignty to Mauritius, a country more than 2,000 mies away which has never owned them, does not even address the grievance, said shadow national security minister Alicia Kearns MP.
“The ICJ ruling is based on the expulsion of the Chagossians in 1968. It does not address the current reality in which no agreement exists amongst Chagossians for Mauritian sovereignty,’ she said.
Yet emboldened Mauritius has already passed a law threatening ten years of imprisonment to anyone disputing Mauritian sovereignty over the islands.
“Chagossians who dispute Mauritian sovereignty could face prison if they return to their homeland after a deal is concluded,” she said.
“Effectively, the Government is offering to pay eye-watering sums of money to Mauritius, which threatens imprisonment to Chagossians who dispute their claim, while ignoring many Chagossian voices because of a non-binding decision at the ICJ.”