The asteroid, 2024 YR4, is estimated to be 58 metres wide and could cause an explosion in the atmosphere or an impact crater on the ground
An asteroid, called 2024 YR4, has a one in 83 chance of hitting earth within the next decade, according to astronomers.
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“Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an ‘airburst,’ or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground,” according to Space.com.
One astronomer, David Rankin, said in a post on social media that the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting earth “have slightly increased to 1 in 83.” Rankin is an engineer at the Catalina Sky Survey, a NASA-funded project based at the University of Arizona’s Lunar and Planetary Laboratory.
By 2039, per calculations by CNEOS, the odds of impact decrease to 1 in 910,000.
Rankin told Space.com that the risk corridor — the region where an asteroid is most likely to hit earth — could be anywhere from South American across the Atlantic Ocean to Sub-Saharan Africa.
“It is just important to keep in mind that its orbit is still too uncertain to know if it will hit, and right now, the most likely outcome is a miss,” Rankin said. “This impact corridor estimation will eventually go stale with new observations and better orbit calculations.”
Astronomer Tony Dunn, who creates orbit simulations online, shared a path that 2024 YR4 could take on his X account this week.
“Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed (to) confirm this,” he wrote.
Although unlikely, the asteroid could cause damage if it collides with earth. The potential destruction it leaves behind has a lot to do with what it’s made of, which scientists are trying to figure out.
“If (it) is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground,” Rankin told Space.com. “If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater. This is why understanding not just the orbit but also the composition and size are so critical.”
Specialist in asteroid observations Richard Binzel told the publication he was “optimistic” that scientists would “get good tracking data over the next several weeks” as more telescopes make an effort to follow it. Binzel is also the inventor of the Torino scale, which categorizes potential earth impact events.