Give team credit for solid run, but it’s unlikely they’ll keep rolling or impact Cooper Flagg odds much.
Raptors Tank Nation is on edge.
Toronto has inexplicably won five out of six games for the first time in the Darko Rajakovic Era (the run includes the first four out of five streak under Rajakovic as well). With Scottie Barnes playing exceptional basketball, the bench looking great, the defence finally becoming effective for a sustained stretch, and with the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NBA the rest of the way, the question has to be asked: Is this team now too good to fail?
Our verdict: Probably not.
If Immanuel Quickley comes back soon (he’s getting closer, Rajakovic told reporters after holding a practice and a coaching clinic at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday) and quickly returns to top form and if the team can’t find a match for Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk and the supernova scorching Chris Boucher by the February 6 NBA trade deadline and if they can all stay healthy through early-April, then, yes, then tank for Cooper Flagg and the other top prospects is in big trouble.
But it’s hard to see all, let alone, most of those scenarios coming into play. There have simply been far too many injuries over the last two seasons to believe another one or two aren’t around the corner (not to mention there will be little reason to play through even minor ailments late in the season, with every loss meaning more ping pong balls). And surely at least one of the key reserves will be dealt, clearing the way for younger players to get more reps (but weakening the team in the meantime as they continue to adapt to the NBA).
And it’s not like this run of success has come against juggernauts. Golden State has fallen apart. Boston has looked nothing like the defending champions lately. Orlando has been ravaged by injuries and Atlanta has been hurting and struggling. Give Toronto credit for playing well and getting it done, but the opponent’s situation has to be factored in too.
Plus, the run has not drastically changed Toronto’s lottery chances. The team sat second-last in the Eastern Conference and third-last the overall standings on January 12 before the wins started coming, but headed into Monday’s game against New Orleans third-last in the East and fifth-last overall. Only Washington, with just six victories in 44 games so far, has cemented itself as the likely last-place finisher. New Orleans would tie Toronto in wins with a victory Monday, Charlotte is only a game back of the Raptors and second-last Utah has three fewer wins. The Jazz will likely tank hard, but New Orleans still has plenty to play for. Charlotte will probably finish below Toronto on merit.
Either way, the three teams with the worst record will each have the same odds of winning the lottery or selecting in the Top 3, fourth-worst gets pretty similar odds, fifth-worst only slightly worse than the other four and so on. Ending up bottom six isn’t all that different than finishing worse in this day and age thanks to anti-tanking measures the NBA has put in place. Last year alone the Atlanta Hawks won the lottery, despite coming in with the 10th-best odds, just 3%, while Houston went from 9th to third (Toronto fell from sixth to eighth and had to give up the pick to San Antonio from the Jakob Poeltl trade). In 2023 the team’s with the third, fourth and fifth-best odds moved up to first (Victor Wembanyama to the Spurs), second and third, respectively. Seventh and eighth both moved into the Top 2 in 2019, third won in 2020. The worst team did win the lottery each year from 2015-2018 but not at all since then (not coincidentally, the first changes to the system went into effect for the 2019 draft, with New Orleans leaping from seventh to first, Memphis from eighth to second and the Lakers from 11th to fourth that year).
Some might say this all means the worst team is due for a win, but probability doesn’t work that way and the new system is doing its job, making each Raptors win less panic-inducing amongst tanking proponents than it would have been pre-2019.
There’s also the benefits of learning how to win tight games, of improving fundamentals, especially defensively, where Toronto was positively putrid for more than a calendar year. That will come in handy regardless of whether a saviour or sidekick for Barnes arrives via the lottery.
@WolstatSun