Analysts say cross-border tariffs would likely drive up gasoline prices the most in the Upper Midwest
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“If tariffs do come in, then we would be looking very closely at the markets that receive Canadian oil to to see if there’s an increase in price,” Smith said in an interview Friday with the National Post.
“We’ve been told that the price could (rise) as much as 35 cents (per gallon) American to 75 cents,” said Smith.
“We’ll very likely see that there are voices out there willing to point that out.”
Fifteen Midwestern states currently source all of their oil imports from Canada, including all-important swing states Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump won both states in his victorious 2016 and 2024 campaigns, but carried neither in his failed 2020 re-election bid.
The region is also home to a dense network of refineries that are rigged to process the heavy crude that flows from north of the border.
Smith noted that stakeholders like the American Petroleum Institute (API) are already highlighting the synergy between Canadian crude and U.S.-based refineries, and the impact a cross-border tariff would have on gasoline prices.
“Obviously API is willing to point that out,” said Smith.
“We’re going to continue working with the Trump administration on this so that they understand how important it is we continue these trade relationships.”
“We believe that we’re going to be a really important coalition of energy providers to make the case for affordable and reliable energy,” said Smith.
Alberta became the first non-U.S. jurisdiction to enter the coalition in November, joining forces with 14 U.S. states, including Wyoming, Indiana and South Dakota.
Smith said the campaign, called Alberta is the Answer, seeks to raise awareness of Alberta’s role in continental energy, food and data security.
“We want national decision-makers to know that Alberta is the answer for a lot of the most pressing issues that they have,” said Smith.
Smith returned to Alberta on Thursday, after a five-day stay in Washington coinciding with President Trump’s inauguration.
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