New EU deal could ‘pave the way’ for Scottish independence

Scots who have had their hearts set on its independence could be in luck for one surprising reason, an international affairs expert has said.

Despite being hundreds of miles away from Scotland, the outcome of a referendum on ’s entry into the could hold the keys to the country’s future.

Iceland’s quick acceptance into the EU, as it meets the union’s single market criteria, would embolden those hoping to reintegrate an independent , Dr Kirsty Hughes, former director of the European Centre on European Relations said.

“An Iceland accession process moving ahead of all the other current candidates is quite likely,” Dr Hughes wrote in an online blog.

“A swift process for Iceland would demonstrate that an independent Scotland applying to join the EU could move relatively fast too.”

“Iceland’s new government clearly sees [the] political benefits of having a seat at the EU table … If a country ten times smaller than Scotland by population sees political benefits from being in the club, why wouldn’t Scotland?” she added.

Iceland has a population of around 393,600 in 2023, while Scotland’s reached a peak of 5,490,100 in the same year.

A new government was installed in Iceland on December 21 under Social Democrat Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir. Its stated aims were to cut inflation and and hold a referendum on EU membership before 2027, according to Reuters.

While the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU in 2016, the majority of Scottish voters wanted to remain – making the welcoming of an independent Scotland back into the fold an attractive prospect for many. Dissenters have warned that the procedure could take years and result in a hard border with England.

But the messaging could be key to unlocking more of the country’s vote, or, to quote First Minister John Swinney, help to “build political support for independence so that [it] is a compelling proposition to the people of Scotland”.

A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom was held in Scotland on 18 September 2014 – with voters choosing to remain as part of the UK.

“Scottish independence will only come about if two things happen: if support for the is very high; and if people are convinced by the merits and arguments for Scottish independence,” Mr Swinney told the earlier this month.

He added that while he wanted independence, which has been a cornerstone policy for decades, “as quickly as possible”, the change “will only happen when the people of Scotland are persuaded in enough numbers that independence is the best future for our country”.

Mr Swinney was accused of pontificating by the chair of pro-UK campaign group Scotland in Union, however, who said the shrinking number of representatives elected last July showed a “rejection” of the independence call from “the people of Scotland”.

“People will be very concerned to hear the First Minister describe separation as an urgent priority while the NHS is on its knees, education is in free-fall and council services have been cut to the bone,” he said.

He added: “The public want a government focused on real priorities, not the ’s obsession with breaking up the UK.”