Elias Pettersson’s season is bizarre. He’s struggling to create for his teammates. And J.T. Miller’s struggling to score too.
They’ve played defence well enough, but their goal-scoring is down, way down.
Let’s take a look at some of the trends and see what we can fathom out of all this.
25
First, there are these excellent stats that SportLogiq’s Mike Kelly posted online on Thursday. To Kelly, who has been covering hockey and especially the numbers below the surface for more than a decade, it’s all about the Canucks’ struggles on the rush.
Last year, Kelly says the Canucks were dead last in creating scoring chances off the rush, but scored on 25 per cent of the rush chances they created, best in the league. This year, they have regressed to the league average finishing rate, about 17 per cent.
So they’re not scoring as much on the rush — and then Kelly notes their defensive struggles on the rush. Last year, the Canucks had the third-best save percentage against rush shots: 85.5 per cent. This year, it’s down to 77.1 per cent, second-worst in the league.
Overall, that’s a huge swing — currently standing at 30 goals to the negative.
0.35
For instance, after two straight seasons of producing more than one rebound chance for his teammates per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time, this season he’s down to just 0.35 rebound chances created per 60. And that tracks with his overall lack of shot volume as well as finishing.
He’s currently hitting the target with 4.8 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five, a career low. Last season, he averaged 6.3 shots per 60, which is just about his career average. The season before, when he tallied 102 points, he hit the target 7.9 times per 60.
He simply needs to find a way to get shooting more, whether it’s on the rush or just by building chances in-zone.
Oh, and one more on this — Pettersson’s finishing at a career-low rate. He’s scoring on just 9.8 per cent of his five-on-five shots.
3.6
Here’s where things get weird. Pettersson’s shot volume and finishing may be down, but his personal rate of high-danger chances — shot attempts taken from on top of the crease — is as good as it’s ever been.
He’s getting 3.6 high-dangers chances per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which is the highest of his career.
So he’s getting the puck to the net.
9.6
But the Canucks are not producing scoring chances with Pettersson on the ice. With him on the ice, the Canucks are generating just 9.6 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, which is down a quarter from last season.
It’s no surprise that the Canucks’ high-danger finishing has collapsed as well. Not only are they not getting the best kind of chances, they’re not finishing them either. This year, they are scoring just 1.2 goals from high-danger areas per 60, compared to 2.4 per 60 last year.
This is a stunning decline in finishing. Generally, in the past, the Canucks have scored about two goals from high-danger areas per 60 with Pettersson on the ice. The only comparable year to this current lack of success was the miserable 2020-21 season.
7.7
But there’s one big difference. He’s finishing just 7.7 per cent of his shots. Now, he wasn’t going to repeat the 18 per cent shooting percentage he managed last season, but he’s well below his career average.
If you’re watching him play, this makes sense. We’re not seeing the same energy in his game that we’re used to. He’s been managing an injury and continues to manage one, a source confirmed, no matter what the Canucks may be saying publicly.
-10
So far this season, the Canucks are minus 10 in goals for versus against at five-on-five.
Last season, they finished plus-56.
Simply put, the Canucks need to figure out why they can’t seem to get more overall scoring chances, and they need to figure it out fast. Last season they scored at a wild rate. It probably wasn’t sustainable.
But this season they aren’t even generating chances. This isn’t about regression, this is about actual play.
Simply put, the Canucks need more creativity from Pettersson and more finishing from Miller.