There are whisperings among Labour MPs that Sir Keir Starmer should not lead the party into the next (Image: PA)
There are whisperings among Labour MPs that Sir Keir Starmer should not lead the party into the next election.
They look at Labour’s tanking poll numbers, Starmer’s own disastrous approval ratings, and his government’s record to date, and wonder whether the guy can recover.
I’m with them on that, despite his huge majority, despite the fact that he’s only six months in, and despite the reality that a lot can happen between now and 2029.
Of course, from the country’s point of view, I’d like Keir Stamer replaced as soon as possible. It gives me no pleasure to say that I can’t think of a worse prime minister in my lifetime.
Okay, Liz Truss wasn’t up to it, but at least she was out within 50 days. Callaghan, Major, Brown and May demonstrated varying levels of inadequacy.
Yet the present incumbent surpasses them all.
What’s worse is that he’s only just got started, upsetting more and more sections of the public, pursuing an agenda that is far to the Right of what he promised his members when standing to be leader, and far to the Left of what he pledged to everyone else last July.
But from the point of view of Labour’s opponents, it might be best if he struggles all the way to 2029.
Because whoever replaces him is likely to be a tougher prospect. Already, Wes Streeting is an obvious candidate.
He’s a strong communicator on the more sensible Right of the party, and if he manages the health mandate as well as can be expected (no easy feat) he’ll be in the box seat, ahead of Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and .
Streeting will be a formidable, straight-talking opponent.
So while Tory and Reform voters can be forgiven for enjoying the payback of watching get a taste of the medicine he happily dished out in opposition, and though they might revel in seeing him stumble from misjudgement to misjudgement and crisis to crisis, while longing to crack open the bubbly when he’s gone, they should be careful what they wish for.
If the Right is serious about forming the next government, its interests might be served if Labour continues its tradition of allowing leaders to stagger on to calamity.
Unlike the , who replace leaders for fun, Labour tends to follow theirs over the cliff edge to defeat.
That’s what happened with Corbyn, Miliband, Brown, Kinnock, Foot and Callaghan.
The only exceptions, going back to 1979, are John Smith, who died of a heart attack, and Tony Blair who was finally shown the door out after 13 years.
A wounded might be the Right’s best hope. After all, the public won’t be fooled again. If he goes into the next election saying: “Read my lips, no new taxes,” the voters will scoff back: “Yeah right, pull the other one, mate!”
And if he pretends that the are somehow uniquely evil because one of their former leaders was presented with a piece of cake, they’ll shout back: “What about freebies, winter fuel allowances and the grooming gangs inquiry?”
Of course, there remains the massive danger and serious possibility that the Right will again split down the middle, allowing him back in for another five years on even less of the popular vote than last time.
That would be galling, not to say calamitous for the country.
But the odds are lengthening. More and more 2024 Labour voters regret their decision. More and more realise sold them a pup. And they’ll be in no hurry to repeat their mistake.