The Blue Jays may still lose their star first baseman to free agency at the end of the 2025 season, but they won’t be defeated by Vlad Guerrero Jr. in an arbitration hearing this time around.
The team avoided that potential messiness on Thursday evening when the two sides settled their arbitration case. In his last season before free agency, Guerrero will earn $28.5 million US, a bump of close to $10 million from his 2024 salary. The amount Guerrero will collect next season is notable in that it is the third highest salary paid out via MLB’s arbitration process behind Juan Soto’s $31.5 million with the Yankees last season and Shohei Ohtani’s $30 million with the Los Angeles Angels in 2023.
The agreement, which came hours after the 1 p.m. deadline for the sides to exchange numbers, at least gives the Jays and Guerrero the possibility of continuing to negotiate toward a long-term, multi-year extension. Guerrero has publicly stated that he’s open to discussions with the Toronto brass, but won’t allow those talks to proceed beyond the start of spring training next month in Dunedin, Fla.
Pay up before then or watch me walk to free agency next November is the apparent message coming from the team’s all-star first basemen.
Guerrero was far and away the big piece in the Jays’ arbitration dealings on Thursday, but the team managed to get all eligible players under contract. The next highest settlement went to outfielder Daulton Varsho, who settled for $8.2 million, followed by catcher Alejandro Kirk ($4.6 million), pitcher Alex Manoah ($2.2 million), infielder Ernie Clement ($1.97 million) and relievers Nick Sandlin ($1.63 million) and Zach Pop ($900,000.)
With that bit of business out of the way, Jays general manager Ross Atkins and his staff still have plenty of work to do this off-season to fill a roster rife with holes after coming off a miserable season in which the team finished a discombobulating last in the American League East. Atkins’ shopping list is a lengthy one, including starting pitching, plus arms in the bullpen and a desperate need for some bats to complement Guerrero in manager John Schneider’s lineup.
As for the ongoing disconnect between the front office and the team’s most prominent player, at least there is a basis to continue negotiating. And perhaps even more importantly, the Jays have avoided the ill will inherent with an arbitration hearing. Guerrero went on the offensive in February 2024 when he attended the hearing in person, daring the Jays to outline what they felt his weaknesses were.
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After winning, Guerrero went on to have his best season since his breakout 2021 campaign, leading the Jays in multiple offensive categories. It’s widely believed that the uncertainty of his long-term future has handcuffed Atkins’ pursuit of top-notch free agents. It’s also led to speculation that the Jays don’t see Guerrero as valuable as they once did and are willing to let him walk if he doesn’t agree to a deal consistent with their internal valuations.
Guerrero has publicly disclosed that the Jays have offered him a multi-year deal worth $340 million, a figure that was well below what he was asking. We’ll see over the next few weeks if the Toronto front office is serious about getting Guerrero locked up long term.
It’s possible that the player’s intention is to walk to free agency anyway, given the skyrocketing prices superstars such as Ohtani and Soto have collected the last two winters. While Guerrero isn’t in that stratosphere, betting on himself with a big 2025 season would go a long way toward making him the darling of next year’s free-agent class.
Avoiding arbitration with Guerrero is a good sign for the present, but it in the broader picture it likely means little. The heavy negotiating is still to come, an ongoing story (and potential distraction) for the franchise and the player the front office long felt would be the centrepiece of a consistent contender.