Polling shows the strongest candidate at the moment, Chrystia Freeland, still has the party trailing Poilievre’s Conservatives by 15 points
With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, the question quickly becomes who will replace him as leader and whether the ship is too far sunk to give the Liberals any hope in the next federal election.
Trudeau will step down as prime minister, prorogue Parliament
That said, 32 per cent of Canadians said they would consider supporting the Liberals, suggesting there’s some opportunity for the party to change course with a new leader and salvage some seats in the next election.
However, support for Trudeau was weak. Sixty-eight per cent of those who said they would “definitely” consider voting Liberal do support Trudeau. But 59 per cent who said they “might” consider casting a ballot for the Liberals do not approve of Trudeau.
Indeed, the respondents most likely to have wanted Trudeau to have stuck around as party leader and immediately call an election are actually those who are least likely to vote for the Liberals in the next election, suggesting they see his leadership as key to a devastating Conservative victory.
Read the full text of Justin Trudeau’s resignation speech
Even among current Liberal supporters — 66 per cent of whom approve of Trudeau — a substantial majority, 60 per cent, said they wanted Trudeau to resign, paving the way for a leadership contest.
Here’s a look at potential Trudeau successors and how they could change the Liberal vote share in the next election.
Chrystia Freeland
The former deputy prime minister and finance minister rattled official Ottawa with a sudden resignation from cabinet on Dec. 16. Long Trudeau’s right-hand woman, there has been intense speculation that Freeland is the logical successor to Trudeau.
While critics would argue that she’s probably too intimately tied to Trudeau’s legislative agenda, the polling actually suggests Freeland could be the best choice for the party at the moment. She is one of two Albertans on the potential list of Trudeau successors, born in Peace River, and raised in Edmonton before studying at Harvard University and working as a journalist and author before entering politics.
If Freeland were to lead the party into the next election, 21 per cent of Canadians say they would cast a ballot for the Liberals. This still has the party trailing by 15 points Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, but is a full eight points higher than the party would get were Trudeau still leading the party.
Notably, Freeland is the most popular Liberal choice among those who “might” consider voting Liberal — a group comprised of 27 per cent of Canadians — and 28 per cent of that group says they’d prefer Freeland.
However, while 19 per cent of Canadians say they would be more likely to support a Freeland-led Liberal party, she is also highly divisive: 29 per cent say they would be less likely to support the party under her leadership.
Still, in Quebec, a key region for the Liberals, a Freeland-led party would be within one point of the Conservatives.
A source close to Freeland said it is “far too early” to say if she will be taking part in the leadership race.
“I’m certain Chrystia will want to talk to her caucus colleagues this week, as a priority, and discuss what are the next best steps for both the party and the country.”
Mark Carney
Formerly the governor of the Bank of Canada, there had been chatter for months that Carney was going to join the Liberal government, perhaps as Freeland’s replacement as finance minister, or perhaps ultimately as Trudeau’s successor.
Carney himself fed this speculation with an opinion piece in the Globe and Mail that argued for several New Year’s resolutions for Canada, including, rather incongruously, the suggestion that the Stanley Cup ought to return to its home territory.
However popular he might be among the Toronto or Ottawa chattering classes, he isn’t that popular among Canadians. The Conservatives are champing at the bit to run against the man Poilievre has dubbed “Carbon Tax Carney.”
Born in the Northwest Territories and raised in Alberta, Carney, like Freeland, also studied at Harvard University before moving on to England’s Oxford University for postgraduate studies. He spent 13 years at Goldman Sachs before joining the Bank of Canada. After a stint as governor between 2008 and 2013, during which he managed the financial crisis, he moved to England, where he served as governor of the Bank of England until 2020, navigating Brexit.
Were Carney to lead the Liberals, 14 per cent say they’d cast a ballot for the party. That’s just one point better than how the party would do under Trudeau. Of those who say they “might” consider voting Liberal, 11 per cent say they would do so were Carney the leader.
Mélanie Joly
Unlike several other potential candidates, Joly is, like her boss, a Quebecer. And Quebec is the Liberals’ last available stronghold. She is currently serving in cabinet as foreign affairs minister, and has chaperoned Canada since 2021 through a variety of international crises, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas.
Raised in Montreal, Joly studied law and worked as a lawyer before, in 2013, joining the committee advising Trudeau on his race to lead the Liberal party. Since then she has served in a number of cabinet posts.
Were she to lead the party, she’d be a middle-of-the-road option compared to Freeland and Carney. Sixteen per cent of Canadians say they would cast a ballot for a Liberal were Joly leading the party. However, just 10 per cent of Canadians say her leadership would make them more likely to vote Liberal and 22 per cent say her leadership would make them less likely to vote Liberal.
Nevertheless, she could be a wise choice for certain geographic reasons: 17 per cent of Quebecers say they’d vote for a Joly-led Liberal party — just three points behind the Poilievre-led Conservatives.
Anita Anand
Anita Anand, a law professor before entering politics, has made no secret of the fact that she wants to lead the party. She has served as minister of national defence — the second-ever woman to hold the post — and is currently transportation minister.
She has represented Oakville since 2019 and was born in Kentville, N.S. As a professor, she taught at a variety of prestigious schools, including Yale University.
Were she leader of the Liberals, 12 per cent of Canadians would cast a ballot for a Liberal candidate; only five per cent of Canadians say they would be more likely to support the Liberals in the next election with her at the helm.
Dominic LeBlanc
A long-time personal friend of Trudeau’s, Dominic LeBlanc has a reputation as a smooth-talking, able politician. Perhaps it’s hereditary: his father, Roméo LeBlanc, was a press secretary for Lester B. Pearson and would go on to be a member of Parliament, cabinet member, senator and Governor General.
The junior LeBlanc, having grown up in Ottawa and attended Harvard for law, was an adviser to prime minister Jean Chrétien for three years in the 1990s. He’s also a long-serving MP, having first been elected to represent the New Brunswick riding of Beauséjour since 2000, making him the most senior of the names currently in the mix as a potential Trudeau successor.
Since Trudeau became prime minister, LeBlanc has been minister of public safety, minister of intergovernmental affairs and, upon Freeland’s departure from cabinet, became minister of finance last month.
Were he to lead the party into the next election, 12 per cent of Canadians would cast a Liberal ballot. He would actually be quite popular in Atlantic Canada — another Liberal stronghold where recently flagging fortunes have become a political vulnerability. Thirty-one per cent of Atlantic Canadians would vote Liberal with LeBlanc at the helm, putting the party within four points of the Conservatives in that region.
François-Philippe Champagne
Another Quebecer, François-Philippe Champagne grew up in Shawinigan, the home of former prime minister Jean Chrétien. He studied law and worked in Italy and Switzerland before being elected as a member of Parliament in the 2015 federal election.
Since 2021, Champagne has served as industry minister, luring EV and battery manufacturers to invest in Canada. Were he to lead the Liberal party, 12 per cent of Canadians say they’d cast a ballot for the party.
Unlike some of the other Quebec candidates — notably Freeland and Joly — the party wouldn’t be expected to run quite so successful a race in la belle province. If Champagne led the party, they would trail the Poilievre CPC by five points.
A source close to Champagne said he is considering his options at the moment and will wait for the leadership contest rules to be released before making a decision.
Jonathan Wilkinson
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is “seriously considering” a bid and has started making calls to caucus, according to a source close to him.
Wilkinson, first elected back in 2015, was promoted to Trudeau’s cabinet following the 2019 election, where he served as environment minister. He was named to the natural resources portfolio in 2021, after the last general election.
The source said Wilkinson not only has a background in the private sector and climate change policy, he considers himself to be a bridge builder and able to maintain relationships across the political aisle, which could be an asset when it comes to Canada navigating its relationship with the U.S.
The polling was done between Dec. 27 and 31 among 2,406 Canadians who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
With additional reporting by Stephanie Taylor and Catherine Lévesque.
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.