Kemi Badenoch could end up loving the thing that defeated the Tories (Image: PA)
Hate me for saying this, but you have no right to complain about Labour’s awfulness unless you voted to keep them out last July. If you didn’t turn up to vote at all, as lots didn’t, you can’t moan. If you voted Reform in a Tory-held constituency, you probably helped put Sir in. And you did exactly the same if you voted Tory in a constituency where Reform was the main challenger.
Sadly, tactical voting hardly featured on the Right. But on the Left it was a different story, and a big contributor to Labour’s victory. To see just how big, we can thank the good people of YouGov, among others, who studied the matter in detail.
YouGov found that nearly six million people voted tactically last July (that’s 20% of the turnout), the vast majority for Labour and the Lib Dems. Nearly a third of Labour’s votes came from people whose first preference was the Lib Dems or Greens. And nearly 40% of votes cast for the LibDems came from people whose first preference was the Greens or Labour. In contrast, only 16% of the votes cast for the were tactical, and only 6% of those for Reform.
So, the Left voted to keep the out, while the Right did nothing to stop them. No wonder Labour achieved a landslide on a third of the vote. Loveless? You bet.
Now it’s worth pointing out a key difference at the last election between Left and Right. The left-leaning parties – Labour, Lib Dems, Greens – were united in their objective to beat the and happy for their second favourite party to strike the fatal blow. It was no bother for them to vote tactically without holding their noses.
But for the two Right-leaning parties, the situation was different. You might expect a majority of Tory voters to name Reform as their second favourite party. But actually, last July, only 40% of them did so, with 30% saying the Lib Dems, 20% Labour and 7% Greens. Likewise, nearly half of Reform voters said their second favourite party was not the , but one of the Left-leaning parties instead.
So, while it was a straightforward matter for the Left to work as a block, the Right couldn’t do so to the same extent. No wonder I failed when, last spring, in these pages, I begged Tory and Reform voters to cast their minds forward to the horrors of a Labour government and consider voting tactically to keep Starmer away from power. Simply, at that stage, a lot of Tory voters preferred Starmer to , and many Reform voters wanted anyone but .
Could it change next time? Alright, it’s a way off, and we know a week is a long time in politics. But it isn’t too much of a stretch to think, come 2029, after four and a half more ghastly years, that Lib Dem and Green supporters might not be quite so enthusiastic about propping up Starmer, or whoever’s replaced him as prime minister.
And Reform and Tory voters might have wised up to the need to lock out Labour, the big enemy. This would mean Tory and Reform supporters voting for each other’s candidates according to who has the best chance of winning.
And what’s the alternative? A decade of Starmer? Ten years of catastrophic stagnation and big-state wokery? The Left showed us last year the power of tactical voting. Come 2029, it’ll be the Right’s chance to play that same game.