Peace in Ukraine is not going to be easy (Image: Getty)
Well, will we see peace break out in Ukraine in 2025? I genuinely hope so, but the portents are not good.
There now seems to be a general perception that is “losing” the war, in so far as Russian forces appear to have made continual advances in recent weeks. These are not dramatic when compared to the manoeuvre warfare we have seen in other wars, but significant none the less.
In fact, is now capturing Ukrainian territory quicker than at any time in the past since its invasion nearly three years ago. The Ukrainians have been mostly successful in keeping the aggressors at bay, but keeping up the effort might be becoming increasingly difficult, despite aid from the West.
Both sides are war-weary, possibly more than , and both have suffered enormous casualties and loss of materiel. So it is not surprising that as the conflict nears the end of its third year the protagonists are beginning to look for an end to the struggle.
A major impetus in the search for a negotiated settlement is the imminent arrival of one Donald J Trump in the White House in a few days time.
His alleged claim that he can end the – war in 24 hours can be dismissed as yet another example of the verbal bluster for which he is renowned, but beyond that? Trump seldom says what he means or means what he says, so his administration’s policy on the war is one of the great known unknowns at the moment.
Anything could happen, and there are doubts that he will continue with his predecessor’s military and financial support to Kyiv. But he might.Ukrainian President Zelensky was quick out of the traps on January 2 and when he outlined the conditions that must be met to push to agree to a “just peace”. He stated that it would require a strong Ukrainian military, security guarantees from Western allies, and ‘s future membership in NATO and the (EU) in order to deter future aggression from against .
Zelensky went on to say that cannot achieve just peace with a small military, such as “40,000 or 50,000 soldiers” – a reference to Russian President Putin’s initial demand during the Istanbul peace talks between and in Spring 2022 that demilitarise and only maintain a force of roughly 50,000 personnel.
Plus the Ukrainian desire to eventually join NATO is anathema to and is unlikely to be willingly conceded by Moscow.
Putin has repeatedly demanded conditions for ending the war that amount to ‘s complete capitulation, including the removal of the legitimate Ukrainian government and ‘s demilitarisation. These demands have not changed since 2021.
On the other hand the Russian position is not as strong as Putin would have people believe. According to the highly respected Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed or damaged over 3,000 Russian tanks and almost 9,000 armoured vehicles in 2024 as continues to accrue vehicle losses that are likely unsustainable in the medium-term.
‘s current armoured vehicle and tank production rates indicate that such losses will likely be prohibitive over the longer term, particularly as continues to dip into its Soviet-era stocks. It is reckoned that the Russian defence industrial base (DIB) can produce 250-300 “new and thoroughly modernized” tanks per year and can repair roughly 250-300 additional damaged tanks per year, far below ‘s estimate of 3,000 Russian tanks lost in 2024.
It is also likely that has used up approximately 50% of its pre-war stocks of tanks and IFVs in storage, and many of those remaining are obsolete models and/or in need of major overhaul and repair. All of which suggests that, barring any dramatic development in vehicle supplies from allies like China or North Korea, the Kremlin will be hard pressed to sustain the war beyond the end of this year.
So it appears that a negotiated peace is in everybody’s interests. It will demand compromises by both sides, and guarantees underwritten by allies that conditions will not be breached without serious consequences.
All of this is doable, but what the Trump administration’s approach will be remains to be seen.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former Army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at