Plenty of overachievers, and some unexpected underachievers as New Year arrives.
With the holiday season over, now’s a good time to take stock of the NBA’s surprises and disappointments through the first few months of the 2024-25 season.
A number of things have gone about as expected heading in. These include defending champion Boston leading the league in three-pointers with a winning percentage close to .750; Canadian superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander mounting another run at an MVP award; Jimmy Butler wearing out yet another welcome, this time in Miami; The Washington Wizards absolutely stinking and phenom Victor Wembanyama looking even better in Year 2 for San Antonio.
Here are some less anticipated angles:
POSITIVE SURPRISES:
The Cleveland Cavaliers have to top this list. Everyone knew the Cavs boasted a lot of talent, but many also wondered if two high-scoring lead guards in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland could co-exist and if promising big man Evan Mobley and established all-star Jarrett Allen could work together in today’s smaller NBA. The team also lost projected starter and floor spacer Max Strus on the eve of the season and he only just got back a couple of weeks ago. But Cleveland has stared a shocking 30-4, including 17-1 at home and has won nine straight overall (its second run of at least nine in a row this year after starting the campaign with 15 consecutive wins). After ranking 15th in three-point accuracy last season, Cleveland leads all teams (and tops all in offensive efficiency). Boston is still the favourite in the East, but probably will have to win a series in Cleveland to get back to the Finals.
Not sure the New York Knicks ranking third in offence under head coach Tom Thibodeau was on anyone’s bingo card (though they were Top 10 last season). But New York looks like a well-oiled machine with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns now that Mikal Bridges has found his form (most notably in a brilliant performance on Christmas). The team has the personnel in Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart to lock opponents down, but is making a name for itself with its scoring punch.
Detroit hanging around .500 after so many lost years is also a breakthrough we didn’t expect. This has been about the NBA’s worst franchise going on a decade now, but finally looks competent. Hopefully the Jaden Ivey injury won’t derail things just when they finally look promising.
Memphis (second in the West before Saturday’s games) has also been a major overachiever, considering injuries to top players Ja Morant and Desmond Bane have caused both to miss plenty of time. There have also been other absences to deal with, but the well-coached team, which includes Canadian rookie centre Zach Edey, just continues to get it done.
Former Raptor Norman Powell’s ascension to all-star candidate and the play of the Clippers overall while waiting for Kawhi Leonard to suit up are both surprises.
Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic somehow having his best year yet isn’t a huge shocker, but it should be mentioned, as should the hard-nosed Houston Rockets, under Ime Udoka, sitting third in the West (though injuries are starting to pile up).
Returning to the East, Orlando holding on to a home-court playoff spot despite injuries to its two best players (and more) and Brooklyn (helmed by Canadian national team head coach Jordi Fernandez) being so competitive (before starting what could be a major sell off) are also positive surprises.
MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENTS:
New Orleans won 49 games just a year ago. Sure, that was only good enough for eighth in a ridiculous tough Western Conference, but this year’s group was an NBA-worst 6-29 entering Saturday. Sure, Zion Williamson hasn’t played, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, Jose Alvarado, Jordan Hawkins, Herb Jones and Dejounte Murray have missed nearly half the games so far, but it’s still shocking just how bad the team has been.
Toronto belongs here too. The first month or so was promising, even if the win-loss record didn’t indicate as much. Darko Rajakovic’s team played hard despite even more injuries than New Orleans and fell short in a lot of tight games. But the last six weeks (4-15 with some of the worst losses in franchise history) have been unacceptable. The Raptors need to lose games to secure a high draft pick in a stacked draft to bring about a better future, but the present looks murkier than it’s been in years.
Philadelphia has to be here as well. The Joel Embiid saga early on was dark, ugly and troubling. Paul George and Tyrese Maxey got hurt, nobody knew what was going on with Embiid (who even got into an altercation with a columnist who went over the line in print) and the team started 2-12. Yes, they stabilized and went 11-5 before dropping two straight, but a team that was lauded as winning the off-season after landing George, needs to be way better than a play-in contender to meet expectations.
Indiana (below .500), Sacramento, Phoenix and Minnesota should also fairly be considered massive underachievers to this point.
Plenty of basketball remains to be played though, so lots of things will change as the playoffs approach.
@WolstatSun