Nigel Farage must be wary of one huge obstacle standing in Reform UK’s way

Reform is campaigning like a fearless startup, but whether they breakout will depend on whether they form a strong local campaign machine.

Reform UK is currently conducting high-level trolling at the over membership numbers — even if the are disputing the figures. It highlights Reform’s mindset: grab

attention, move fast and with confidence, unburdened by any record to defend or policy it realistically has to enact.

While it’s easy to dismiss this as another stunt, Reform is generating a remarkable level ofnoise, fuelled by a massive social media presence, flashy events and increasing donations.

Commentators are almost forgetting that it has just five MPs, compared to, say, the Lib Dems, who once achieved a record high of 72 MPs in Parliament. Ed Davey, their leader, is now reduced to singing carols to get any notice.

But here’s the rub: winning elections isn’t just about making memes viral or taking selfies with Farage; it’s about doing the hard graft on the ground.

And this is where Reform could face a challenge. They are still struggling to field enough candidates for local by elections, let alone ready to field thousands of candidates in the local elections in May (even if Starmer is trying to cancel some).

Their candidate pipeline seems risky at best, with reports of high attrition rates during vetting. This raises questions about whether the party can sustain a solid, reliable team at the local level.

While digital campaigning is an important factor, how Reform converts its membership into the very unglamorous task of door knocking and shoving leaflets through doors in the wet and cold will still be key to its level of success. Otherwise, the party will hit a natural ceiling and risk spreading its support too thinly, making a winner takes all election victory harder.

A strong local campaign could make a 10% difference — or more — at an election.

As Reform’s profile increases, it’s also attracting higher profile recruits keen to join the bandwagon. Whether these characters play nice or descend into infighting is a real risk, as seen by the departure of Ben Habib.

Their growing membership body might also agitate for more power and decision making, something Farage is unlikely in practice to let go of, despite noises to the contrary.

Certainly, Labour should be worried. Voters are rapidly becoming exhausted by Starmer’s miserabilism, and that means undecided voters are on the market.

As Labour’s national polling sinks, it seems Reform is benefiting from this. However, at local council by-elections, it’s the who have made the most gains so far, with a net increase of 24 seats in very different Wards across the UK.

The grassroots ‘ Associations seem to have survived the recent cycles of brutal local elections as well as the torrid general election and are rebuilding, relieved to no longer be 20 points underwater in the polls.

These Associations act as more than just campaigning hubs; they are social networks cultivated over decades and have shown remarkable resilience.

will need to harness them, especially in the many Associates suddenly sitting in Labour constituencies for the first time in years, something Reform do not have yet.

Labour will be praying that the and Reform split the right-wing vote, but tactical voting might also benefit the in the next general election.

The are, after all, the only realistic party that can oust Labour under our first-past-the-post system.

Reform will look to change that narrative, especially in Northern and Coastal seats, but they will need to invest in being hyper targeted to make in-roads there.

With still over four years away till the next General Election, cynical voters are barely paying attention to any of the recent spats. But how the political parties develop their grassroots now, will make a huge difference in years to come and can determine the increasingly fine margins between election and failure.

Johnny Luk was a 2024 Conservative Parliamentary Candidate and is Head of Public Affairs at Cast from Clay