Crashed Azerbaijan Airlines flight ‘almost certainly hit by Russian missile’

A Russian air defence system likely caused the deadly crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight earlier this week, aviation experts have said.

The Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 flew from Baku to Grozny in when an unexplained diversion led to a fatal attempt to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan.

After crossing the Caspian Sea eastward, the aircraft crashed near Aktau, erupting into flames on impact. Videos online show parts of the fuselage torn from its wings, with the wreckage overturned on grassland.

Mark Zee of OPSGroup, an organisation tracking global airspace and airport hazards, analysed the crash debris. His assessment strongly suggested the jet was likely targeted by a surface-to-air missile (SAM).

He said: “Much more to investigate, but at high level we’d put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket.”

UK-based aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions echoed the assessment.

The company, which continues to provide analysis for carriers operating in despite many Western airlines ceasing flights due to the war, has sent out over 200 alerts about drone attacks and air defence systems in the conflict zone.

Andrew Nicholson, CEO of Osprey, said: “This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do.” He added: “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”

Independent Russian military expert Yan Matveyev noted that the damage to the plane’s tail section appears consistent with shrapnel from surface-to-air missiles like the Pantsyr-S1 air defence system.

He said: “It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments.”

Matveyev also noted that the aircraft flew hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea after the strike rather than attempting an emergency landing at a nearer Russian airport.

He added: “Perhaps some of the plane’s systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” while acknowledging potential restrictions the crew might have faced in attempting to land elsewhere in .

The Azerbaijani news outlet Caliber, known for its ties to the government there, reported a Russian Pantsyr-S air defence system near Grozny might have targeted the aircraft. It questioned why Russian officials didn’t shut down the airport after drone activity nearby.

Chechnyas Security Council head, Khamzat Kadyrov, confirmed that air defences had intercepted drones over the region on Wednesday.

Addressing the incident, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cautioned against speculation over the crash’s causes at a Wednesday press briefing. However, he also claimed adverse weather may have prompted a change in the flight’s trajectory.

“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” President Aliyev said.

Rosaviatsia, ‘s civil aviation body, reported initial findings suggesting a bird strike prompted an in-flight emergency leading to the plane’s redirection to Aktau. However, Azerbaijani legislator Rasim Musabekov pointed fingers at Moscow, alleging the aircraft was shot down.

Speaking to Turan news agency, Musabekov demanded issue a formal apology and insisted that anyone involved in the incident face criminal charges. He added: “If it doesn’t happen, relations will be affected.”

Amidst the ongoing investigation into the crash, specialists noted that perforations on the aircraft’s rear might imply damage from Russian missile defences during clashes with a Ukrainian drone. Such drone activity had been previously recorded in Grozny and other North Caucasus areas.

Chechen officials claimed they repelled another drone assault on Wednesday.