Patrick Johnston: J.T. Miller’s return to action should help revive the Canucks’ moribund offence.
Even their leadership thought they had some work to do — don’t forget president Jim Rutherford’s pre-season message that everything would have to go right for them to make the playoffs. It was smart work in setting expectations, it allowed his team to over-deliver.
And that they did.
Could the Canucks repeat the miracle of last season in 2024-25? Most people were reasonable about what this season would likely look like — a solid playoff team that needed some work to become a proper playoff contender.
And in so many ways, that assessment is confirmed, practically from game to game.
Think about the past week, for instance. Impressive showings against two true Stanley Cup contenders in the Florida Panthers and Colorado Avalanche, a shocking dud against the stumbling Boston Bruins, a blown lead against a hustling Utah squad.
What is this team? Are they the definition of a paper tiger, something that looks tough but under the surface isn’t? Or are they a powerful team just looking to find their way? Let’s take a look.
12
According to Clear Sight Analytics, the Canucks are 12th in the NHL at creating high-percentage chances, as in chances that historically have stood a good probability of becoming goals.
That’s fine, but elite teams still do better.
Can the return of MIller rejuvenate the offence?
50
Pettersson’s game had greatly improved even before Miller left the lineup. He had scored four goals in the five games before Miller went on leave Nov. 19, for instance.
Now, against all odds, Pettersson kept picking up points with Miller out, even as the Canucks’ offence cratered.
But a look under the hood shows that with Pettersson on the ice, the Canucks’ quality of chances fell by half.
And that tracks with the overall trend described above. The Canucks were remarkable good at finishing what chances they created.
8
He has played well, but one number stands out in how the Canucks are playing in front of him right now. According to Natural Stat Trick, the average distance of shots taken against him in those three games is eight feet closer than the average Kevin Lankinen has faced this season.
That is not a trend the Canucks will like. Overall on the year, they have been very good at limiting chances against from the slot.
But the closer shots get on the net, the more difficult they are to stop.
It’s no wonder that the rebound rate with Demko in net is two times higher than what Lankinen has yielded.
2.74
Here’s why Miller’s return, in the end, could mean everything, more than a return for Hronek or the Canucks trading for a new defenceman: no Canuck has a higher five-on-five expected-goals rate than Miller.
Miller has driven the offence when he is on the ice this season like none other. Even without considering how well Pettersson has been playing, or not, that’s a massive figure and one you simply can’t replace.
The Canucks have also done very well defensively with Miller on the ice, 2.18 expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five time, slightly above Pettersson and Hughes’ 2.11.
Going forward, the Canucks should get back in the positive, although who knows how consistently.