Ethiopia has started electricity production at the Nile mega-dam (Image: Getty)
It is one mile long, 145 metres tall and holds back a reservoir the size of Greater . It has already taken 12 years to build and, once complete, will be the largest hydropower project in .
However, the enormous scale of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is causing diplomatic tensions that have dragged in nearly several countries for hundreds of miles around. One of those countries, one of the most populous in Africa, even says the dam threatens its very water supply despite the two countries not being neighbours and being separated by hundreds of miles.
Ethiopia has been building its dam for more than a decade already. It recently finished filling the reservoir behind it, using water from the Nile. Ethiopia says the dam will produce electricity for 60 per cent of its population, who currently have no supply.
It would double Ethiopia’s electricity output, which the country hopes will provide its people with a constant and reliable electricity supply and boost development in return.
Neighbouring Sudan would also be able to increase its hydropower potential. Amit Ranjan, writing in the Journal of Contemporary African Studies, says this will enable Sudan to “expand its irrigation area, which could help increase its GDP by up to £66billion by 2060”.
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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is an astonishing feat of engineering — but has brought tensions (Image: Getty)
Other countries hope it will help them too, including South Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti and Eritrea.
But Egypt accuses Ethiopia of threatening its water supply, causing “major geopolitics tensions” in the region. The dam is on the Blue Nile tributary in the northern Ethiopia highlands, from where 85 percent of the Nile’s waters flow. Egypt relies on the Nile for nearly all its fresh water.
The reports that Egypt is concerned that even a tiny two percent reduction in water from the Nile to Egypt could mean the loss of 200,000 acres of irrigated land. It also says Ethiopia could decide to fill the reservoir in times of drought rather than letting it flow down-river to Egypt.
Since the dam building started in 2011, countries including the USA, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have all tried to help with negotiations. Even the UN Security Council has been involved. Some of these countries back Egypt’s position so Ethiopia has entered into agreements to sell electricity generated from the dam to Kenya, Tanzania, and South Sudan, and plans to do the same with Rwanda, Somalia and Burundi.
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In March 2015, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan signed a declaration of principles as the basis for negotiations around the filling and operation of the dam. But since that signing, Ethiopia “has essentially acted unilaterally regarding the filling and operation of the dam”, says the Arab Center Washington DC. Ethiopia began filling the reservoir in 2020 and has carried out two further fillings since.
The Arab Center Washington DC says: “Ethiopia ignored both countries’ multiple calls to reach a binding agreement on the dam, one that would secure Sudan and Egypt’s water rights and interests.”
In 2019, the International Crisis Group warned that “the Nile basin countries could be drawn into conflict because the stakes are so high”.
It said: “Ethiopia sees the hydroelectric dam as a defining national development project; Sudan covets the cheap electricity and expanded agricultural production that it promises; and Egypt perceives the possible loss of water as an existential threat.”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi (right) met with Ethiopian leader Abiy Ahmed Ali in 2023 (Image: Getty)
What is the history of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam?
A treaty from 1929, and another from 1959, gave Egypt and Sudan rights to almost all the Nile’s water.
In the 1950s, a feasibility survey for the GERD was conducted, though nothing came of it for decades.
In 2011, the Ethiopian government began work on the dam, sparking alarm, especially in Egypt and Sudan.
In 2015, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan signed an agreement that was meant to cover how the dam was filled and operated. But Ehtiopia continued to behave unilaterally.
In 2019, the International Crisis Group warned that “the Nile basin countries could be drawn into conflict because the stakes are so high”.
In 2020, Ethiopia began filling the reservoir. Two further fillings were done before 2022.
Also in 2020, Egypt referred the matter to the United Nations Security Council, who issued a statement in 2021 that encouraged the disputing parties to resume negotiations.
In 2022, the UAE mediated secret talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to find a solution.
In 2023, Sudan’s de facto leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said he was “aligned and in agreement” with Ethiopia.
Which countries are affected by the dam?
The “high stakes” around the Nile’s water mean several countries have been drawn into the geopolitical tensions around the dam.
Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan are the countries at the heart of the issue. The dam is in Ethiopia, but Sudan and Egypt are downstream and rely on the Nile’s water.
Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain all support Egypt’s position. The UAE has “a balanced position” and has mediated talks. The USA has also stepped in to host negotiations, as has the UN Security Council.
To build its own support, Ethiopia has entered into agreements to sell electricity generated from GERD to Kenya, Tanzania and South Sudan and plans to do the same with Rwanda, Somalia and Burundi.