House price rises have cancelled out interest rate savings
The data from mortgage network Stonebridge revealed that reveals that payments accounted for 40.1% of the average borrower’s salary in September.
Stonebridge said this meant affordability was at its lowest level in nearly a year, and while affordability improved slightly in September (from 40.6% in August), repayments continue to take up a far larger proportion of borrowers’ salaries than they have done historically.
For example, in November 2021, the month before the Bank of England (BoE) started hiking rates, payments accounted for just 32.1% of the average borrower’s salary – 8.5 percentage points less than today.
The long-running average is for borrowers to pay 35.9% of their salary towards their .
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Stonebridge’s Affordability Index uses official wage and rate statistics and combines it with its own loan data to determine the relative affordability of payments in proportion to earnings.
Stonebridge said rising house prices were effectively cancelling out any benefits gained from the gradual reduction in rates witnessed over the past few months.
The average rate on new mortgages fell from 4.86% to 4.78% between August and September but because of rising house prices the average loan size rose to a 27-month high of £198,383 the same month.
Rob Clifford, chief executive at Stonebridge, said the data made it clear most borrowers had not seen the benefits from the Bank of England’s rate cutting.
“With house prices still rising and rates elevated, homeowners are now spending more than two-fifths of their salary on payments – well above the historical average. This highlights that the cost-of-living squeeze is far from over for millions of households.”
“The good news is that we’re likely past the worst, with the Bank of England likely to continue cutting throughout 2025. As we go into 2025, we expect that to filter through to borrowers in the form of lower rates, which will provide relief for millions of households.
“With more than 1.8 million fixed rates due to end in 2025, now is the time for brokers to re-engage with their clients, many of whom will be concerned about how much they are going to have to pay going forward.”
Stonebridge’s Affordability Index:
Month | repayments as % of salary |
---|---|
September 2023 | 38.7% |
October 2023 | 41.9% |
November 2023 | 41.8% |
December 2023 | 42.4% |
January 2024 | 41.9% |
February 2024 | 39.7% |
March 2024 | 38.1% |
April 2024 | 38.8% |
May 2024 | 38.8% |
June 2024 | 39.6% |
July 2024 | 40.2% |
August 2024 | 40.6% |
September 2024 | 40.1% |
Long-running average | 35.9% |