Expert warns Rachel Reeves’ promise not to raise taxes depends on pure ‘luck’

Rachel Reeves told buisness leaders there will be new new tax rises (Image: Getty)

A financial expert has warned that will need a healthy dose of luck to keep her promise not to raise taxes any further than she has already done.

has faced weeks of criticism following her , which included £40 billion of tax rises.

However, she has now vowed that these tax hikes will be the last of this parliament.

She also warned that public spending is now effectively set, and government departments must work within these budgets. 

 Rachel Reeves Delivers the Autumn Budget

Rachel Reeves has been under fiore since her inaugral budget (Image: Getty)

Reeves told business leaders:  “We’ve now set the budget for public services for the duration of this parliament. Public services now need to live within their means because I’m really clear – I’m not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes.”

However, economists are sceptical Reeves will be able to keep her promises. They point out that, according to her Budget, public spending is set to increase by 4.8 per cent this year and 3.1 per cent next year – before declining sharply to an average annual rise of just 1.3 per cent over the subsequent three years.

They say that the 1.3 per cent increases projected for the latter half of the decade would essentially mark a return to austerity – and almost inevitably result in real-terms cuts. 

The  (IFS) says Reeves must find another £9 billion – either from unexpectedly higher growth or from further tax increases she has now ruled out.

Rcahel Reevs and Starmer

Labour may have to bring in austerity policies (Image: Getty)

If she doesn’t, the Labour Government will have little choice but to introduce measures – like the ones they once protested against when in opposition.  

Ben Zaranko, associate director of the IFS, said the Chencellor’s cabinet colleagues will “be lobbying hard” for budget top-ups, but she will have little wriggle room to avoid more huge tax rises. He said this could mean “traditionally unlucky areas” like the justice system, local government, and further education face cuts. 

Reeves, however,  has suggested further cuts can be avoided. She told business leaders that big efficiency savings, which would be introduced in a spending review in the Spring, would ensure taxpayers got better value for money from the Government.

However, economists say Reeves is also betting heavily on  – and this means she will need a healthy dose of good luck. 

 

Zaranko told: “It’s possible that the chancellor will find a way to square the circle.  She might get lucky on growth.

“The  might stop growing quite so quickly, or pressures on areas like the asylum system might fade away, freeing up cash to be spent elsewhere. Pressures for more NHS spending could ease as productivity and performance improves, and public service reform could start to yield fruit.

“Any or all of those things would be a big help. But if the chancellor isn’t blessed with good fortune, there’s every likelihood that her spending plans don’t survive contact with the spending review process and that a more generous settlement requires another round of tax rises.

“That’s especially true if global developments weigh on growth or necessitate rapid increases in the

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