HMS Vengeance, one of four nuclear deterrent-carrying Vanguard-class submarines (Image: Tam McDonald)
HUGE leaps in satellite technology will make Britain’s nuclear missile- carrying submarines less of a deterrent to China and .
Advances in artificial intelligence and quantum technology are progressing at such a rate that the oceans will be made “transparent” in decades.
And the pace of development may even affect boats currently under development under the Aukus deal between the US, China and Australia.
This will see the three countries collaborate to create cutting-edge, battle-winning technology.
China is already developing superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs) which can detect submarines by measuring magnetic fields. Quantum gravimeters can detect submarines by measuring variations in gravitational pull.
And advances in laser use have led to Lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) technology which can transmit laser pulses through the water to produce highly accurate 3D scans of objects.
Another threat is Magnetic anomaly detection (MAD) instruments which monitor the Earth’s magnetic fields and can detect subtle disturbances caused by the metal hull of a submerged submarine.
Britain’s nuclear weapons were originally carried by long-range Vulcan aircraft but in 1964 they were switched to Resolution class submarines which carried US Polaris missiles.
Today four Vanguard-class submarines mount round-the-clock patrols in the deep waters of the North Atlantic ready to protect Britain in the event of a nuclear strike from
The shift to submarines was considered strategically safer, since they were considered more difficult to track. The Vanguard -class boats introduced in 1994 boast nuclear-powered engines which allow them to remain submerged for up to six months at a time.
Their Dreadnought replacements are thought to be the most sophisticated submarine ever designed.
But, while the average submarine is designed to have a 25-year lifespan, delays in the Dreadnought programme mean that Vanguards will have exceeded that by at leats 15 years by the time they come online in the middle of the next decade.
It means the £31bn Dreadnaught boats could experience a complete transformation of the maritime battlescape while still in service .
“There are considerable concerns amongst the maritime community that satellites will transform maritime capabilities,” said space consultant Dr Stuart Eves.
“It is, of course, all too easy to spot a carrier group from space.
“But there is also a concern that developments will threaten the covertness that submarines have relied on for decades.”
He added: “A variety of methods are being developed,
“If a submarine is anywhere near the surface you can get an optical signature and take a conventional optical picture.
“Anything travelling close to the surface will create an underwater wake which will propagate up to the surface and a satellite equipped with an infrared camera will see a wake in the water. Disturbed water that is a warmer temperature than deep water should be.
“There are also satellite capable of measuring very sensitive changes in gravitational attraction, Some of the satellite being proposed for geodetic measurements of the earth will have such fine resolution that a large lump of metal in the ocean will create enough of a gravitational signature that some of these super refined new sensors will be able to detect.
“And the use of Quantum mechanics will cool atoms in a detector down to the point where the thermal variations go to zero ,so if you then see any test particles moving you know its due to a variation of gravity. These have phenomenal sensitives.
“Quantum sensing techniques are not yet operational and require further development – the physics is tricky – but it will happen.”
The threat from Chinese satellites is growing with technological advances (Image: Anadolu Agency)
He said drones would be unstable for the technology because they would be affected by vibrations cause by the earth’s atmosphere, adding: “The advantage of a satellite is that it’s in zero gravity .and some of the factors which drown out the signal in the atmosphere don’t apply, “
Gabriel Elefteriu, managing partner AstroAnalytica, said that, while submarines would not necessarily become obsolete, “there is good reason to believe they will be less useful.”
The prospect of transparent oceans is not a new anxiety, various new technologies have been emerging and it is not difficult to effectively detect the wake from submarines from space.”
Besides Lidar and SQUIDS, advances in the way we map the ocean floor.
“In order to separate signals from ambient noise, you need an accurate reading of that part of the ocean in terms of temperature and gravitational fields at any point, and we are getting that.”
He added: “There is a long way to go before these are effective from space. But if you look at the technological advances made over the last 30 years, you can see the trajectory.
Ways to counter these advances include submarines moving more slowly to decrease their wake or simply deploying more vessels, though this will be costly.
Maritime expert Prof Trevor Taylor from the RUSI think tank said: “First we had sonar buoys, then aircraft, and now we are looking at developments in space.
‘Sensing technology always prompts efforts to reduce visibility further,? particularly in submarines, and that’s likely to continue.
“Of course, these advances, when they occur, will increase the cost of submarines considerably.
“When it comes to Aukus, this is an issue on which Australia needs to inform itself before it commits to massive expenditure.”