Nigel Farage will be thinking one thing over a proposed alliance (Image: PA)
There may come a moment when a deal between the and makes electoral sense. But – as the Tory conference raps up – that moment has definitely not yet come.
The stench of the last 14 years will be difficult to wash off for the , having failed so abysmally to fulfil their manifesto commitments. The leadership of the party feels frankly now like a poisoned chalice whoever wins.
The consensus seems to be that MPs will want to send one One Nation centrist through to the final two to be voted on by party members – which is one of and . The smart money right now seems to favour Cleverly.
Then comes the impetus to stop from entering the final two. Has she done enough to win over MPs – especially after what the former Business Secretary explained was a misinterpretation of her comments on maternity pay – and to edge out , the current frontrunner and convert to the Tory Right?
Who knows? But no killer blow appears to have landed at conference for anyone. Even though Labour has struggled through its own recent omnishambles, the rudderless and leaderless are in no place to exploit such failings.
If polling is to believed, ‘s Reform UK is closing the gap on the , even more than it did on election day. True, a new leader could see that gap widen, but it is also possible that Reform UK begins to overtake the instead. This will be very much on Farage’s mind.
Little wonder the Reform leader is dismissing talk of any alliance. Not only are the hardly an attractive bunch to snuggle up with right now – forced to ape Reform language on everything from immigration to net zero to appear even moderately electable – but Reform UK is also gunning for patriotic Labour voters in the North, Midlands and coastal areas.
Farage is hardly going to jeopardise that by throwing his lot in with a still-toxic Tory brand. Reading the room, he clearly senses opportunity and advantage in maintaining a clear division between his party and the increasingly discredited .
Here’s the upshot: the had over 14 years in office and singly failed to deliver. They botched , pledged to reduce immigration and actually jacked it up to record rates. That would have been fine if they had made no pledge to bring it down. But instead the party spat in the face of its support base and now expects all to be forgotten.
The still get a boost from Britain’s first past the post voting system, which admittedly makes it harder for an insurgent party like Reform. Under a proportional representation system, Farage would have around 90 MPS, not five. Meanwhile the would have just over 150, not 121, meaning the gap between the two parties would be far narrower.
All it takes is for a significant number of Tory voters in a select number of seats to plump for Reform and the man who has increasingly become the spiritual leader of the opposition – if not the official leader of the opposition in Parliament – would be within spitting distance of Number 10. Win over enough Labour waverers up north and Farage can measure up the curtains.
As the Tory beauty contest continues, one can hardly blame the Reform leader for refusing to strike any early deals, something also ruled out by the Conservative leadership hopefuls. Yes, we are a long way off the next election. Both Reform and the could see sense in a tie-up by that point if it is the only way to oust Labour. But 2029 is a very long way off.